Lollipop Guild

"You have no power here. Begone, before somebody drops a house on you too!"
--Glinda, Good Witch of the North (The Wizard of Oz)

Another sage letter by Dr J. In the front half he makes a compelling argument for a recession given the position of his forward looking indicators.

In the back half he discusses the EU situation given last week's 'coordinated' move by central banks. He reminds once again that the issue is one of solvency rather than of liquidity. Last week's coordinated dollar swap program is a short term measure aimed at boosting liquidity.

To remedy the solvency problem, it is likely that either banks fail or non-bank holders of EU debt must take haircuts. Thus far, no one wants to do that.

John ends with a section called "We represent the Lollipop Guild." His thoughts here are so wonderfully collected that I want to capture them here in their entirety:

"Frankly, I am concerned that Wall Street is becoming little more than a glorified crack house. Day after day, the sole focus of Wall Street is on more sugar, stronger sugar, Big Bazookas of sugar, unlimited sugar, and anything that will get somebody to deliver the sugar faster. This is like offering a lollipop to quiet down a 2-year old throwing a tantrum, and expecting that the result will be fewer tantrums.

"What we have increasingly observed over the past decade is nothing but the gradual destruction of the ability of the financial markets to allocate capital for the benefit of future growth. By preventing the natural discipline of the markets to impose losses on the poor stewards of capital, and to impose interest rates high enough to force debtors to allocate the capital usefully, the world's policy makers are increasingly wrecking the prospects for long-term economic growth. The world's standard of living (what we can consumer for the work we do) is intimately tied to its productivity (what we can produce for the work we do). That productivity requires scarce savings to be allocated to productive physical capital, and to productive human capital (primarily education).

"Nietzsche famously said, 'What does not kill me makes me stronger.' The corollary is 'What constantly rescues me makes me weaker.' The world will only stop looking for bailouts when policy makers stop handing them out."

Re-read until you understand.