Patterns of Optimism

So glad we've almost made it
So sad they had to fade it
--Tears for Fears

Back in early November technicians were eyeing the pennant patterns forming in the major indexes, and largely opining that the resolution of that pattern was likely to be higher. As we now know, the bulls were fooled as prices moved lower.

Now, technicians are eyeing a forming inverse head and shoulders pattern with similar optimism.

Will Hoofy's heros bring home the bacon this time? That seems to be the growing consensus.

Personally, I'm not playing it that way. There is far too much macro overhang for my tastes, not to mention overvaluation at the micro level, to merit holding a bunch of long equity risk.

Am currently about 10% net long, but that long exposure is in commodities. It is offset not quite one for one with an index equity short. This hedged position has not proven to be as effective this time around because of recent weak commodity performance relative to stocks.

Currently, however, my MO remains the same. Use price to my advantage to a) add exposure at lower prices and b) unload exposure at higher prices. All the while, I want to maintain sizeable dry power (read: cash and short term fixed income).

position in commodities, SPX