Political Purge

"So, here's to the men who did what was considered WRONG, in order to do what they knew was right...what they KNEW was right."
--Benjamin Franklin Gates (National Treasure)

After Donald Trump and his close circle were hit by DOJ search teams, it appears that this administration is widening its nets. Tucker Carlson reports that subpoenas are in the process of being issued on dozens of Trump allies.

This is what a political purge looks like.

Obviously, this is meant to send a message ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, and to those who are considering involvement in the presidential election two years off.

Extremism and Liberty

"Tonight, our country, that which we stand for and all we hold dear, faces a grave and terrible threat. This violent and unparalleled assault on our security will not go undefended...or unpunished. Our enemy is an insidious one, seeking to divide us and destroy the very foundation of our great nation. Tonight, we must remain steadfast. We must remain determined. But most of all, we must remain united."
--Adam Sutler (V for Vendetta)

It's difficult to imagine that this administration doesn't lose more political support each time it opens its mouth. Last night Biden spoke like a geriatrically challenged version of Adam Sutler, declaring that supporters of Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again ideology constitute a "threat to our country."

If one infers that those who voted for Trump in 2020 comprise this group, then it numbers at least 70 million.

The president's press secretary added the e-word. The president, she said, sees this group as "an extreme threat to our democracy."

Moreover, "when you are not with where the majority of Americans are, then, you know, that is extreme. That is an extreme way of thinking."

Setting aside questions involving what precisely in MAGA ideology is inconsistent with the views of the majority of Americans, or, for that matter, whether MAGA ideology itself doesn't actually constitute the majority viewpoint, any American with a modicum of grounding in US history understands that our founding ancestors designed a government that protected the rights of those who not aligned with the whims of majority opinion. 

If the press secretary's definition of extremism is employed, then opinions inconsistent with the majority are to be protected from tyrannical treatment. Government is legally barred from acting against 'extremists'--again defined as those who think differently from the 'majority.' 

My sense is that Americans still understand this founding principle well enough they are are turned off by the caustic 'extremist' claims of leftists.

Irreparably Compromised

"The wheels turn slow around here. Real slow. But they do turn."
--Detective Marie Mitchell (Hard Target)

What would it take to show that there was massive fraud and interference in an election--long after a 'winner' was originally declared. What if this fraud and interference cast serious doubt who really won? Or even worse, that a candidate originally deemed to have lost actually won?

How would the damaged candidate(s) seek and obtain relief?

My sense is that those who perpetrate election fraud are prone to do so boldly, under the assumption that if they can get to the point where the results are declared 'official,' then it will be next to impossible for a damaged candidate to obtain relief in a manner that society views as legitimate.

Not long after the 2020 election, these pages mused about this situation. That we're still musing more than two years later suggests a) that compelling evidence of fraud continues to surface, and b) the spectre of widespread recognition of irreparably compromised election has not been extinguished by the perpetrators.

Healthy Mistrust

"Sorry, boss, but there's only two men I trust. One of them's me. The other not you."
--Cameron Poe (Con Air)

Recent cries of foul over the FBI's raid of Donald Trump's Florida home have fed apologists coming out of the woodwork. The FBI needs to be given the benefit of the doubt, they say.

In other words, trust the feds.

Truly?

Here's a partial laundry list of FBI corruption.

Mischief by government agents should not be surprising. As Madison observed, men are not angels. And because men are governed by other men rather than by angels, controls are necessary on those who govern.

Among those controls is healthy mistrust of those holding public office.

Crimson Tide

"He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like, oh sure, he went to Harvard!"
--Louis Winthorpe III (Trading Places)

Harvard Crimson survey indicates 80% of Harvard faculty identify as liberal or very liberal. Check out the conservative sliver at less than 2 percent (with no 'very conservative' respondents).

Would they support hiring more conservatives to increase ideological diversity? 31% of the faculty said no. 56% supported stronger screening for former Trump officials seeking to join the faculty, while 30% were for banning anyone from that group outright.

More evidence that academic diversity has been firmly supplanted by academic perversity.

Weaponized Agencies

Trim life shadows flicker and fall
But you still can't turn away
Get up and run before you stall
Before the edges fray
--Ric Ocasek

Given that the executive branch now includes dozens of agencies with strong armed capability, it should come as no surprised that influential politicians will seek to 'weaponize' those agencies against political opponents. The FBI, CIA, and IRS are particularly attractive in this regard.

McCarthy, JFK, Tea Party, et al.

In the recent years, there has been no better example of the weaponization of federal agencies than the concerted operations to take down Donald Trump. First as a candidate, then as sitting president, and now as a former president with future candidate potential. The FBI, CIA, DOJ, and even the military has been involved.

Yesterday's actions will be difficult for even many partisans to brush off as federal agents raided Trump's home in Florida.

Actions over the past few years have escalated to the stuff of authoritarian police states. The current administration is brazenly employing federal agencies to punish political opposition.

What authoritarians never seem capable of understanding is the extent to which their aggression strengthens the resolve of the liberty-minded.

Keep Him Out

But you won't get too far
'Cause you got to blame someone
For your own confusion
We're on guard this time
Against your final solution
--Red Rider

Interesting thesis about why leftists, including many on the conservative side, cannot let Trump back in the Oval Office. The primary answer is that it is not Trump, but the tens of millions of 'country class' that he represents. 

The elite cannot afford to have give those rubes, Clinton's 'deplorables,' a voice in the political process. And to keep that from happening, the ruling class will stop at nothing to keep that from happening.

The author suggests that leftists have a string of plans in the queue to keep Trump out of office.

Plan A. Use the Jan 6 show trials to keep Trump from running/winning. By most accounts, however, that isn't working.

Plan B. Indict Trump for 'seditious conspiracy' using the DOJ and other machinery of the deep state. Of course, it will be difficult to convince a large fraction of Americans that any such charges hold a modicum of legitimacy.

Plan C. Declare Trump ineligible to run under the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. The legitimacy issue still holds.

Plan D. Simply beat Trump at the ballot box. The trouble is Democrats have no obvious candidate that could compete with Trump head-to-head this time around.

Plan E. Cheat (again) in the election. There is no question that Democrats will do what they can get away with (again) this time around. The issue is, given the heightened public awareness about election process shenanigans, how much they will truly be able to get away with in 2024.

Plan F. Take to the streets and riot. Do this until the 'proper' regime is secured in the White House.

It is easy to see why leftists are husting to grab guns ahead of this cycle.

Correlation, Causation, Consequence

"There's a storm coming, Frank."
--Col Keith Davenport (Twelve O'Clock High)

They say correlation isn't causation.

Increasingly, however, many prospective voters think it is.

Unless they can scare people back into their houses again this fall, the consequence of these antecedents projects to be an election bloodbath.

Patterned Silence

"Fools," said I, "You do not know
Silence like a cancer grows"
--Simon & Garfunkel

Glenn Greenwald discusses the near universal censorship of 'skeptical' info w.r.t. the Ukraine situation. Anything that does not jibe with the party line--the parties being the United States, EU, NATO, or Ukraine--is being silenced. 

The question is why. Why must any view that counters the mainstream about a remote skirmish in Eastern Europe be buried? After all, there were plenty of skirmishes in this region prior to Russia's recent campaign--many of them inside Ukraine.

Greenwald suggests that it's primarily because it is to the military industrial complex's benefit. 

That's part of it, sure. But there's likely more--probably much more. 

Broad censoring programs were in force, and seemingly growing, prior to the Ukraine conflict. They included the silencing of dissent and 'disinformation' related to:

Clinton campaign corruption

Trump/Russia

Black Lives Matter protests

CV19 policy

2020 election corruption

Who is on the silencing side of all of these campaigns? Who is getting silenced?

The patterns point to why.

Breaking Eggs

"It's all in the wrist."
--Sabrina Fairchild (Sabrina)

Must admit that I'm increasingly persuaded by this argument. As we recently suggested, proponents of the Great Reset believe that they need crisis to push their agenda ahead.

So why wouldn't they be the ones to manufacture chaos? Elections, Covid, Ukraine, etc.

Can be seen as a variation of the Leninist philosophy that, to make an omelet, you need to break a few eggs.

Harding's Path

Nick Carraway: You can't repeat the past.
Jay Gatsby: Can't repeat the past? Why, of course you can!
--The Great Gatsby

The dominant narrative about President Warren G. Harding was that he was a boob who ran a corrupt administration. To be sure, the Tea Pot Dome scandal happened on his watch, and, similar to Donald Trump, Harding may have been far too trusting of those working in his administration.

However, as this article points out, Harding achieved much during his term in office--a term that was cut short by his untimely, and somewhat suspicious, death in 1923.

A likeable sort who was elected by a landslide in 1920, President Harding was determined to lead Americans weary of war and Wilsonian progressivism into a peaceful age of prosperity. After quickly overcoming a post-war depression using a 'hands off' approach completely lost on modern administrations, Harding focused on perhaps the crown jewel of his legacy: foreign policy.

Harding clearly ended WWI for America. He withdrew troops from the German Rhineland, presided over agreements on war debt, and shunned the military-industrial complex's calls for arms buildup. He convened the Washington Disarmament Conference in late 1921 to ink international agreements on weapons limitations. Harding also withdrew US troops from Latin America and signed several treaties to ease tensions in Asia.

Completing work begun as a senator prior to his presidency, Harding killed his predecessor's League of Nations proposal. "America can be a party to no permanent military alliance," he said. "It can enter into no political commitments, nor assume any economic obligations which will subject our decisions to any other than our own authority."

Wise words which were, of course, subsequently ignored by bureaucrats following WWII.

Warren G. Harding reversed the dangerous internationalism of Woodrow Wilson and put the United States back on the path of neutrality and non-interventionism. America proceeded to roar down that passageway during the Twenties.

Harding's achievements provide a roadmap for how to get back onto that path today.

Treason Mania

"A toast...to high treason. That's what these men were committing when they signed the Declaration. Had we lost the war, they would have been hanged, beheaded, drawn and quartered, and--my personal favorite--had their entrails cut out and BURNED!"
--Benjamin Franklin Gates (National Treasure)

Glen Greenwald discusses the increased tendency to label people as 'traitors.' Out of concerns that treason term would be abused for political gain, the framers defined the limited scope of the crime in the Constitution itself. Per Article 3, Section 3:

Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.

Treason was the only crime to be delineated in the Constitution. Why? Because the framers anticipated the grave danger of repressive governments seeking to silence criticism of, or opposition to, government policy by making it a capital crime.

Stated differently, they knew that liberal interpretations of treason would squash freedom of speech.

Given its constitutional limitations, treason has rarely been prosecuted in the United States, and less than 12 Americans have been convicted of treason in the nation's history.

Unfortunately, legal limitations have not prevented politicians and their media minions from shouting "Treason!" in the direction of those who behave in manners deemed unsupportive of consensus government policy.

Greenwald suggests that the Trump era elevated accusations of treason from a periodic transgression to a standard, reflexive way of criticizing political opposition. Indeed, the 'scandal' investigations that embroiled Trump's term can easily be seen as a protracted treason campaign. As Greenwald observes,

"The dominant narrative insisted that Trump and his allies were controlled by Moscow, subservient to the Kremlin, and were acting to promote Russian over American interests. That Trump was loyal not to the country that elected him but, instead, to an adversarial nation is something Democrats believe as an article of faith."

In reality, of course, many of those who have accused Trump of treason seem to possess little affinity for the fundamental institutions that underpin the United States and, in fact, seem hell bent on overthrowing them. As such, the Trump Treason narrative seems another ironic act of projection by this group. 

In any event, thanks to the Trump Treason years, "an entire generation has been trained to believe that 'treason' is the crime of expressing views that undermine Democratic Party leaders, diverge from the US security state, and/or dispute the consensus of the US corporate press."

Enter, now, the Ukraine conflict. Russia's invasion of Ukraine three weeks ago has taken treason mania to another level. (Although Greenwald calls it 'never-before-seen,' I suspect that we have, judging from what I've gathered about the Alien and Sedition Act of 1798, as well as the Wilson and FDR years). People suggesting that NATO expansion or any other factor beyond 'Putin' helped spark this conflict, or that Ukrainian borders are not vital enough interests to the US to warrant American involvement, are reflexively labeled 'traitors.'

Our founding ancestors lived this accusation. By speaking out against the King of England they were deemed traitors for voicing legitimate political opposition to the crown. They understood that the hallmark of tyranny is intolerance of voices that questioned official government policy, and to criminalize them if possible by equating dissenting voices with treason.

That's why the framers articulated the First Amendment, and a limited criminal scope for treasonous behavior. 

If you've been labeled a 'traitor' for dissenting from the party line on Ukraine, then find comfort that you're on the right side of history and of reason. Don't take the insults personally.

Better yet, pray for them.

Cancel Culture and War

Watch me clinging to the beat
I had to fight to make it mine
That religion you could sink it neat
Just move your feet and you'll feel fine
--Culture Club

As observed by ZeroHedge, during a war (or in any situation of conflict) you want to hear both from both sides in order to make more informed decisions--even if the 'other' side is wrong or lying. Discerning truth can be extra challenging when the war propaganda thickens.

And degree of difficulty rockets higher when info flow from the other side is shut down.

Western countries were quick to suppress Russian new outlets last week. Moscow has now reciprocated.

This tells you that both sides have things to hide. Or that each side does not want or trust its people to make informed decisions.

After coming of age during Trump, BLM, CV19, et al, mature cancel culture is ready for war.

War, Propaganda, and Politics

"War is a continuation of politics by other means...Von Clausewitz."
--Capt Frank Ramsey (Crimson Tide)

Doubt you'll find a better analysis of propaganda as applied to media coverage of the Ukraine situation. In the case of the US, this means that any pro-Ukraine or anti-Russian claim spreads rapidly while dissenters are vilified as traitors or Russian agents.

Emblematic of the situation was the 'Ghost of Kiev' meme which quickly went viral on social media. The Ghost was a rogue Ukranian pilot who, while protecting the skies over Kiev, shot down 6 Russian planes. Although the Ghost wasn't real, I doubt the Congressmen who helped perpetuate the fable cared much.

Meanwhile those questioning the fables are deemed apologists for the Kremlin.

However, all of this is nothing new. False narratives, censoring dissent, etc have been ratcheting higher thru Trump and CV19. 

Although truth has indeed been a casualty of this war, it had already been compromised for years.

Indeed, war is indeed a continuation of politics by other means.

Scandal Escalating

You run, run, run away
It's your heart that you betray
--Scandal

The Durham investigation into possible spying of the Trump campaign and presidency has filed a motion in which it was divulged that contractors and tech experts essentially spied on Donald Trump during his presidential campaign and while he was in office.

According to Durham, a tech company gained access to Trump servers and "exploited this arrangement by mining [Trump domain] traffic and other data for the purpose of gathering derogatory information about Donald Trump." Who precisely benefitted from this information was not specified in the filing, but dots can be readily connected between the tech firm and Hillary Clinton.

The implications were not lost on the former president, who issued a 'vindication' statement of sorts.

On in lead in to her Sunday morning program, Maria Bartiromo stated that she hopes "Donald Trump will sue them all for everything because they damaged his reputation throughout his four years in office. So much so that he was constantly on the defense...Every American should be outraged by this."

Of course, only some Americans will be outraged by this. Others will choose to look the other way. 

But as Durham continues to pile up the evidence, the scope of this scandal is growing toward proportions that will be difficult for all but the most partisan to ignore.

Maria made another nice point this morning. She wondered whether all of the noise being made by the Biden administration about a Ukraine invasion by Russia might be more fiction than fact--i.e., a distraction to keep public attention away from an escalating political scandal. 

Interesting speculation, particularly as new trickles out that Ukraine and Russian officials claiming that war is not imminent.

Poll Death Cross

If you think I didn't know
About the little tricks you played
And never see you when deliberately
You put things in my way
--The Who

What driving the COVID pivot? The poll death cross. Disapprovals crossing above approvals.

Approval ratings crossing below those of the previous administration.

How politicians get religion.

Mandate Pivot

"My, my, my...how hell doth quicken the spirit."
--William Strannix (Under Siege)

With poll numbers and prediction markets indicating a bloodbath coming for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, memos from party leadership have surely been circulating to ditch increasingly unpopular CV19-related mandates. Blue states and cities have been tripping over themselves over the past few days to announce that they will be rescinding mask mandates and ditching vaccine mandates. 

Leftists rhetoric is also pivoting away from lockdowns. The Biden administration has even had the audacity to claim that it has never supported lockdowns and that it was the Trump administration that gave them the green light.

Lesson: fear of being dethroned can drive even ardent authoritarians to become supporters of freedom and choice.

At least through election season...

Important Chart

There's a room where the lights won't find you
Holding hands while the walls come tumbling down
When they do, I'll be right behind you
--Tears for Fears

Have been looking for an updated version of this chart for a while. Finally found one courtesy of maven Stephanie Pomboy.

The chart continues to tell an important, if not THE, story behind the huge rise in stock prices (as well as other asset prices) since the 2008 credit crisis.

The graph plots balance sheet assets of the Federal Reserve alongside the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from 2009 thru the end of 2021. The correlation between the two series is unmistakable. Increases in the Fed's balance sheet, which has more than quadrupled in size since 2009, correspond to increases in overall stock prices.

What has caused the Fed's balance sheet to increase so dramatically? The primary driver has become known as 'quantitative easing' (QE)--a program designed to, among other things, stimulate economic activity after major calamities such as the 2008 credit collapse. 

When conducting QE operations, the Fed purchases securities (mostly Treasury and agency bonds) from financial institutions that deal in those securities. For instance, the Fed might observe $100 million in Treasuries sitting in J.P. Morgan's (JPM) inventory, and then buy them all by placing a credit of $100 million with JPM in exchange for the bonds. The $100 million in Treasuries is added to the Fed's balance sheet.

Where does the Fed get the $100 million to buy those bonds from JPM? Out of thin air, baby. It creates the money with a few clicks of a mouse. 

The freshly minted cash now in the hands of financial institutions can be used to fund everyday operations, including trading and speculation in financial securities. As implied by the above graph, a sizable fraction of this cash has gone into stocks over the past decade or so.

It should be noted that the relationship works in reverse as well. When the Fed has halted QE operations over the past decade, stocks generally move sideways along with the value of the Fed's balance sheet assets. And, although you have to squint to see it, on the rare occasion that the Fed has attempted to unwind (read: sell) assets from its balance sheet (which has the effect of removing some of that magically printed money from the financial system), stock prices have fallen.

The only time this relationship did not hold was 2018-2019. Despite Fed efforts to curtail QE and even unwind balance sheet assets during this period, stock prices continued to rise. However, as indicated by Stephanie on the graph, this period also corresponds to a time of tax cuts and deregulation that was favorable for stocks. Stated differently, the bullish backdrop essentially overpowered the bearish forces of Fed actions on stock prices.

The relationship quickly got back on track in early 2020 when the Fed embarked on a gargantuan QE program in response to the onset of COVID-19. The Fed's balance sheet has more than doubled since then to over $8 trillion. The value of the SPX has commensurately doubled as well. 

Moving forward, the relationship between QE and stock prices has important policy implications. As inflationary pressures grow, the Fed may be tempted to curtail or perhaps even reverse its bond-buying practices. Although doing so would relieve inflationary pressures that the Fed itself helped to create, stopping or reversing QE is likely to put downward pressure on stock prices. Any policy that tanks the stock market promises to be politically distasteful.

Whatever the Fed and other central banks who have engaged in QE decide to do from here to address the inflation that they themselves brought about, you can bet that they are looking at the same chart we are...

no positions

Latest Chapter

Today is where your book begins
The rest is still unwritten
--Natasha Beddingfield

What is the greatest story never told (by mainstream media) concerning CV19? There are certainly many to choose from. Measurement problems, the folly of masking, broad economic and social costs of lockdowns, lack of truly following the science, faulty, if not outright corrupt, vaccine development and approval process, China's, and Fauci's, role in assembling the virus, use of pandemic as a tool to disrupt and fix elections, etc.

A still-developing chapter involves increasing evidence of outright failure of mRNA vaccines to provide durable protection against infection. Alex Berenson summarizes data out of Ontario showing greater tendency of vaccinated people to become infected compared to unvaccinated individuals. Although not the primary focus of this piece, Denmark data suggest similar.

Policymakers and their media lackeys continue to ignore these developments. Instead, they continue to pound the table for forced vaccination.

Speaking of Ghosts

"Well, this is nice. Where are we? Trump Tower?"
--Frank Cross (Scrooged)

Some representatives appear warm to the idea of Donald Trump becoming Speaker of the House should the GOP regain control of the chamber in next year's midterm elections. 

Honestly, I had no idea that the speaker did not have to be a member of Congress. It has never happened before in US history. But the mere prospect is interesting to consider.

This season, I can think of few Ghosts of Christmas Future that would haunt leftists, and RINOs, more than the spectre of Donald Trump being installed as Speaker of the House.