Sanctions Fever

Life goin' nowhere
Somebody help me
Somebody help me, yeah
--Bee Gees

Vladimir Putin attributes Europe's energy crisis and related probs to 'sanctions fever.' It is hard to disagree.

Watching a related special last nite on CNBC and host Brian Sullivan asked a guess whether he thought the West's sanctions on Russia were 'working.'

Perhaps he should have asked the millions around the world who face starvation and hypothermia due to these sanctions.

Sadly, this was predictable from the get go...

Frozen Policy

Hear the Salvation Army band
Down by the riverside
Bound to be a better ride
Than what you've got planned
--The Bangles

Europe seems headed toward a self-imposed depression. Sanctions against Russia, combined with previous 'green' policies, have exploded in the face of euro bureaucrats, leaving the EU facing a winter with insufficient heat, electricity, and gasoline.

Some gas and electric bills are already printing 5-10x year ago levels.

Policymakers appear to be doubling down by developing plans for rationing, price capping, and money printing.

Absent a quick policy about-face, it is difficult to see how the EU survives the next few months.

Be Poor and Like It

"Tis too much proved, that with devotion's visage and pious action, we do sugar o'er the devil himself."
-V (quoting Shakespeare) (V for Vendetta)

Another version of the 'suck it up' message. Euro leaders tell their people that 'abundance' is a thing of the past. Be poorer and like it.

One has to wonder how long a people is willing to endure hardship in support of a bureaucratic ideology.

Hiroshima Myth

"The principle of law in every civilized society has this in common: Any person who sways another to commit murder, any person who furnishes the lethal weapon for the purpose of the crime, any person who is an accessory to the crime...is guilty."
--Judge Dan Heywood (Judgment at Nuremburg)

On August 6, 1945, a United States B-29 dropped the world's first atomic bomb in Hiroshima, Japan. Three days later another A-bomb was dropped on the city of Nagasaki. Japan surrendered later that month to end WWII.

An estimated 120,000 perished in the two blasts with hundreds of thousands subsequently maimed or killed from radiation exposure. The lion's share of casualties were civilians--mostly women and children.

The popular myth trotted out to justify this carnage is that, by bombing the Japanese mainland and inflicting death and destruction to a degree that forced a surrender, the US subsequently avoided more than a million additional military casualties that would have resulted from the ongoing conventional war campaign--including an inevitable invasion operation of Japan.

As discussed in this article, this amounts to little more than the rationalization of atrocity.

The fact is that Japanese officials signaled their willingness to conditionally surrender earlier in 1945. Their condition was that Japanese emperor Hirohito would remain in power and not be subjected to criminal investigations after the war. The idea was to preserve as much Japanese culture as possible, and to provide continuity to facilitate economic and social functioning in post-war Japan.

Sadly, President Truman and his lackeys were unwilling to accept anything other than unconditional surrender--quite ironic since after the war Hirohito was indeed permitted to remain as emperor until his death in 1989. 

Why, then, were the bombs dropped?

The answer is that Truman and his staff, particularly his confidante and future secretary of state James Byrnes, had their eyes on Russia. Using atomic weapons would demonstrate US military strength to Russia and keep Stalin & Co at bay as the superpowers entered a 'cold war.' A secondary reason was that Congress could be assured that its secret appropriation for the Manhattan Project was bearing fruit that created near and longer term benefits.

Following the bombings, however, many officials, including Commander of the Third Fleet Admiral Bill Halsey, Fleet Commander Chester Nimitz, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff William Leahy, and atomic theorist Albert Einstein, condemned the action. 

This is when the propaganda machinery got into gear. Editorials and articles began to hit the pages of newspapers and magazines about the military necessity of the bombings. The myth has been continually reinforced, usually around this time of year, by political leaders and a complicit media. 

Perhaps in a brief moment of conscience, Henry Stimson, who was secretary of war at the time and chief propagator of the subsequent Hiroshima myth, wrote in his memoirs, 

"Unfortunately, I have lived long enough to know that history is not what actually happened but what is recorded as such." 

Indeed, Mr Stimson. My sense is that you and many of your contemporaries will face, quite literally, the trial of your lives on Judgment Day.

Blatant Lying

"Richard, it profits a man to give is soul for the whole world...but for Wales?"
--Sir Thomas More (A Man for All Seasons)

An administration bureaucrat looks straight into the camera and claims that it is "factually not true" that gasoline prices were rising prior to the Ukraine conflict.

These people will use any means when attempting to manage narratives. Blatant lying included.

Rationing and Rationalizing

First, I thought we were fighting for God. Then, I realized we were fighting for wealth and land. I was ashamed.
--Tiberias (Kingdom of Heaven)

Germany has begun rationing energy-related resources to compensate for their self-imposed sanctions with Russia. Am sure German citizens are being told to suck it up. 

Unfortunately we know that if goods do not cross borders, armies will.

How long will it be before people of G-7 countries, absent power and heat, look longingly at Russian resources and rationalize war to seize oil and gas for the 'greater good?'

Ceiling Prices

We run though the day
And stare at the night
Is your head full of noises?
For me, well, it's just like
The Fourth of July
--Roger Daltrey

Among the dumbest of economic policies pursued by politicians is the price ceiling. The thinking is typical authoritarian. Think prices are too high? Then simply declare them lower. Set a maximum price for transactions on the market. Punish those who engage in transactions at a higher-than-mandated price.

What happens when producers are forcibly restrained from selling output at higher prices? Supply leaves the market. Shortages develop. 

Not only does present supply leave the market, but future sources do as well. Entrepreneurs are less motivated to develop marginal or substitute sources of supply when the profit signal of higher prices is suppressed.

Over time, prices are likely to be much higher--particularly if it takes a long time to replace capacity once it is taken off the market by the caps.

Cogitate on that as G-7 bureaucrats mull price caps on Russian oil.

Suck It Up

"Whatever it takes is something that happens to somebody else."
--Jake Lo

As Americans increasingly question the logic of a distant war--an in particular the associated sanctions--that are jacking domestic cost of living higher, the administration is telling the citizenry to 'suck it up.'

When asked how long US drivers should be expected to pay a 'war premium' for gasoline, the president responded, "As long as it takes."

Hard to imagine replies like this will play well at the ballot box.

Commitment to Stupidity

"He chose...poorly."
--Grail Knight (Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade)

The larger question for big government types is this: Have not the past couple of years demonstrated the sheer ineptitude of central planning?

Public health. War and sanctions. Economic and monetary policy. Et al.

Hayek called it the fatal conceit--the belief that bureaucrats in a room can choose better than billions of individuals.

Ongoing belief in central planning constitutes a genuine commitment to stupidity.

Dollar Dominance

We're talking 'bout the dollar bill
And that old man that's over the hill
--Simply Red

The US dollar has been touching multi-year highs as 'risk off' traders flee to what is perceived as the best house in a bad neighborhood. The below graph is telling in that regard.

At some point, the USD may be a meaty short candidate--particularly if you subscribe to the notion that the USD is in the process of losing its reserve currency status.

No Reason?

There's a gun and ammunition
Just inside the doorway
Use it only in emergency
Better you should pray to God
The Father and the Spirit
To guide you and protect you from up here
--Mike and the Mechanics

Another example of left-wing gun grabber hypocrisy.

More recently, one could substitute into the first panel the thousands of 'assault weapons' being sent to Ukraine streetfighters over the past few months.

No reason?

War Fatigue

Armchair warriors often fail
And we've been poisoned by these fairy tales
--Don Henley

Governments wanting to engage in war with foreign entities must win consent of the citizenry to do so. If they view the war as illegitimate, the people have capacity to shut the war down via several avenues, including voting officials out of office, withholding funds for military resources, or even overthrowing the regime prosecuting illegitimate war.

Consequently, governments must convince people that their war is just. They must do so at the outset of the conflict, and then continue to do so. Because war requires ongoing sacrifice in order to fund the war effort, it is possible that enthusiasm for war will wane as people increasingly regret what they must forfeit as conflict drags on.

It appears that support for US involvement in the Ukraine conflict is already waning. Surveys suggest that the American public is increasingly wary of US efforts to harm Russia in manners that hurt the domestic economy.

That, of course, is precisely what sanctions do. Any effort to restrict production and trade with entities abroad damages standard of living at home.

As more Americans realize that sanctions are not unilateral, this administration loses its public grant of legitimacy for engaging the country in war.

Art of Hybrid War

"War is a continuation of politics by other means--von Clausewitz."
--Captain Frank Ramsey (Crimson Tide)

Interesting post that fades mainstream media claims that things are going poorly for Russia in Ukraine. The central claim is that Russia is slowly and deliberately tightening the vise around territory that is strategically meaningful. 

Moreover, by keeping the pace deliberate, Russia puts more pressure on Western economic systems that have essentially sanctioned themselves into positions of peril. That peril includes long-term damage to a dollar-denominated financial system.

Russia may be honing the art of hybrid war.

New Detente

Anatoli Grushkov: I will miss so very much talking to William.
Jack Ryan: Me too.
Anatoli Grushkov: Perhaps, from time to time, you and I could talk.
Jack Ryan: Yeah, I'd like that.
--The Sum of All Fears

Statesman Henry Kissinger urges the West to cease trying to inflict crushing military and economic defeat of Russia, and suggests that negotiations should begin to head off a more serious, irreversible conflict.

The 98 yr old architect of detente diplomacy posited that these negotiations should shoot for a return to the pre-war status quo. This would include Ukraine accepting a peace deal that ceded formal control of Crimea and also tolerated informal Russian influence in the eastern Donetsk region.

Predictably, Kissinger's recommendations set off the blue check crowd that generally seems dead set on global thermonuclear war. This mindset has been reinforced by a US administration that has failed to talks of any kind toward a negotiated peace.

We can be pretty sure that, if Henry Kissinger were still secretary of state, he would be in the middle of peace talks, seeking to broker a New Detente.

Status Quo Changing

"The status quo has changed, son."
--Patrick Gates (National Treasure)

Interesting piece by Louis Gave on the possible impact of the Ukraine conflict and associated sanctions on the USD's reserve currency status. He suggests that, in an age of fiat currencies, military superiority strengthens a nation's currency and has gone a long way toward solidifying the dollar's reserve currency status.

However, cheap military technologies such as the drones that have been deployed en force in Ukraine are changing the game of warfare--to the extent that they might substantially reduce the impact of conventional weaponry that the US holds a lock on. Should this come to pass, then Big Defense loses value alongside the US dollar's status.

In addition to the impact of the war on the ground, Gave suggests that the weaponization of finance as reflected by the blitzkrieg of war-related sanctions is tutoring the world about the risks of depending on the USD. Developed country bonds have been getting pounded while developing country bonds have been strong--quite the turn from the lessons of the Asian Contagion in the late 1990s. Lesson: Why hold US/EU bonds in this environment?

Moreover, sanctions have demonstrated that the US and its allies can run roughshod over property rights at their discretion. If the wealth of Russian oligarchs can be confiscated so abruptly, then why not the assets of any entity deemed to be an adversary of the US? Lesson: Why depend so highly on a financial system controlled by the US?

The status quo may indeed be changing.

Diplomatic Immunity

Arjen Rudd: Diplomatic immunity..!
Roger Murtaugh: Has just been revoked!
--Lethal Weapon 2

EU leaders are increasingly calling for diplomatic solutions to end the Ukraine conflict. The leaders of France, Germany, and Italy have all spoken directly with Putin.

Meanwhile the US continues to be MIA on the diplomatic front. Biden has not spoken with Putin since the war began. The secretary of state has not spoken with his Russian counterpart either.

Instead, the US has been subsidizing Ukraine's military.

The message behind this behavior is obvious. This administration is declaring diplomatic immunity. It favors war over peace.

Real Reds

"I would say they were WAY off course. This is very unusual."
--Mr Teasdale (Red Dawn)

Ironic that the email thread among public health officials that spawned the lockdown mess was internally labelled 'Red Dawn.' In this version of the 80s classic (and remade in the 2010s to feature North Korean/Chinese antagonists rather than the original Soviet bloc brigades), the virus was the invader and public health officials seemed to view themselves as the groundswell insurgents staving off the incursion.

The bureaucrats seemed to be engaging in a behavior that seems characteristic of their ilk: projection.

In reality, public health officials were working to impose an authoritarian program rivaling anything that socialist outsiders could conjure.

Public health officials were the real reds.

Embargo Better

"You know how I'm always trying to save the planet? Here's my chance."
--David Levinson (Independence Day)

Intuitive thesis about the real reason behind the EU/NATO drive to embargo Russian oil. Build Back Better zealots will stop at nothing to reduce fossil fuel production and (especially) consumption. Regulation has morphed into more extreme measures such as pandemic lockdowns and even war--perhaps of the nuclear variety.

The Russian oil embargo fits right in. Heck, if these folks could enact a law that banned all fossil fuel tomorrow, they would surely do it.

It doesn't matter how many people are destroyed in the process. In the eyes of the BBB crowd, it's all in the interest of the greater good.

Disinformation Governance Board

Funny how I blind myself
I never knew
If I was sometimes played upon 
Afraid to lose
--Talk Talk

In what could hardly be a more overt validation of George Orwell's 1984 message, the federal government has created a 'Disinformation Governance Board" under the Department of Homeland Security. The objective is to 'police' what is deemed (by the overseers, of course) to be 'misinformation' or 'disinformation.'

The censorship drumbeat among progressives has reached a fevered pitch, pushed over the top by Elon Musk's buyout of Twitter (TWTR) announced last week.

How the establishment of such an agency is not a direct violation of the First Amendment is beyond me.

 At the same time, we should also note that this is not the first time the feds have sought to thwart free speech through formal structure. John Adams' Alien and Sedition Acts, Lincoln's muzzling of unfriendly press during the Civil War, Wilson's Committee on Public Information and Sedition Act of 1918, information shapers in FDR's 'brain trust,' et al.

To borrow Locke and Jefferson's term, this 'train of abuses' has been running in fits and starts since the ink was newly dry on the Bill of Rights. And in the most noteworthy authoritarian regimes in history...

I hope this is challenged in the courts. Meanwhile it will be interesting to see how much legitimacy this agency acquires from the people. 

Stated differently, widespread rejection of the Disinformation Governance Board by the citizenry could bury the censors and vault awareness of liberty to levels not seen in some time.

Burying Liberty...Again

"Why should I trade one tyrant 3000 miles away for three thousand tyrants one mile away? An elected legislature can trample a man's rights as easily as a king can."

--Benjamin Martin (The Patriot)

Judge Nap rails against the unconstitutional seizing of Russian property, the freezing of Russian bank accounts, and the barring of contractual trade with Russian partners--all done under the guise of sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion. These sanctions violate both the Fourth Amendment, which requires warrants specific to place and person before property can be detained, and the Fifth Amendment, which requires due process before property can be expropriated.

A common response to charges such as these is that the Constitution only protects US citizens and not foreigners. This is wrong. The wrongheadedness of this line of thought is revealed by considering the Constitution's conceptual basis.

The formation of the United States is grounded in natural law. Natural law posits that all men are created equal at birth, meaning that we all have equal rights to life, to the freedom to pursue our interests as long as we do not forcibly intrude on the pursuits of others, and to the property that our pursuits might generate.

These natural rights are granted to each of us by our creator and as a condition of our humanity. They are unalienable, meaning that we are free to exercise our natural rights unencumbered by government interference. This is the founding principle of liberty. 

Government's sole just purpose is to protect our natural rights. It can only interfere in an individual's pursuits when it is suspected that a person has forcibly compromised the natural rights of someone else. However, government must carefully follow just legal processes including those specified by the Fourth and Fifth Amendments.

If the natural law basis of the Constitution is to be upheld, then it makes no sense to limit its application citizens of the United States. Americans were not the only people born to the 'self-evident' truth that all men were created equal. All have been endowed with the same set of natural rights. When government tramples on the natural rights of any individual, it has done wrong.

As the Judge notes at the end of his column: "War is the health of the state and the graveyard of liberty." Actions of the US government taken under the auspices of the Ukraine conflict demonstrate once again America's lack of leadership in championing the very principles upon which our nation was founded.

War finds the United States burying liberty once again.