Lambs Among Wolves

Do not answer fools according to their folly, lest you become a fool yourself.
--Proverbs 26:4

In today's gospel from Luke 10, Jesus laments that "the harvest is abundant but the laborers are few." So he appoints 72 'others' to head out to towns ahead of his visits to evangelize--to prepare the way. 

He warns that he is sending them "like lambs among wolves." Many, he knows, will not be receptive. In fact, they may be downright hostile.

For those who are not receptive, Christ advised his evangelists not to dwell on it. Rather, he tells them to shake off the dust of those places from their feet and walk away.

Today, God wants his world back. Those 72 'others' represent us. We are to go forth, like lambs among wolves, on a journey toward spiritual perfection that ends at the gates of heaven. Along the way, we are to try to persuade others to join us on the journey.

Many will react with indifference and hostility. In those cases, Jesus tells us not to engage them on their terms. If we do so, then, as the proverb suggests above, we risk becoming entrapped in their foolishness.

Instead, shake their dust from your feet and move on.

The Real Thing

Taste and see that the Lord is good.
--Ps 34:8

Today today we celebrate the feast of Corpus Christi--the body and blood of Christ. Catholics believe that the bread and water offered at mass do not represent symbols. They are transformed into Christ's real presence.

As such, nothing should get in the way of receiving it. Not travel, sports, or other distraction. 

What could be more important than receiving Jesus himself?

Rose Peddling

Now that your rose is in bloom

A light hits the gloom

On the gray 

--Seal

While waiting for the early Bowl games to start yesterday, I caught the end of the Rose Bowl parade on TV. I rarely watch the networks anymore except for sporting events. The parade coverage reminded me why.

It was infested with leftist slant. But it went beyond the media. Floats and parade walkers conveyed political messages as well. One float had a giant image of nurse, fully masked, holding a syringe surrounded by people, also duly masked, encouraging people to vax up.

I began to wonder whether messages like this were being sent my way when I was a youngster but too naive to recognize overt propaganda. 

Probably. But the style of the peddlers has evolved. 

Subtle has given way to lurid.

Legitimacy and Christians

Oh, won't you sign up your name

We'd like to feel you're acceptable, respectable

Oh, presentable

A vegetable

--Supertramp

Legitimacy can be defined as social acceptance, recognition, and status bestowed on those who conform with social norms. Institutional theory is grounded in the proposition that desire for legitimacy causes widespread compliance with rules and customs, leading to a general isomorphism, or sameness, of behavior.

A factor that may moderate this relationship in a community is the strength of Christian belief among its members. A clear message of the bible is that walking the path of Christ and acting in His name requires nonconformity. Rules must be broken, fires must be started, and persecution--which could be defined as negative consequences of not complying with social norms--is likely.

Formally stated, the proposition is this: The greater the Christian belief among members of a community, the lower the preference for legitimacy from society-at-large. 

Christians strive to conform to the will of God more so than 'the will of the people.'

Because, as Christians see it, the only legitimacy that matters is conferred by God. 

Not Working

Oh, that ain't working
That's the way you do it
--Dire Straits

Saw a graph in the WSJ today that showed the 'labor force participation rate' as being about 62% compared to 64% pre-corona. 

That figure seems way off.

If the number prior to the pandemic was in fact 64%, then I would guess today's figure is closer to 50%. There are a ton of people not working--including those who a) hit the silk due to CV19-related regulatory oppression (many of those opting for 'early retirement.' b) are being subsidized to not work thanks to ongoing pandemic unemployment benefits, or c) fear that they will catch a disease if they were working.

This is why we are seeing such a 'tight labor market.' Able bodies are electing not to work.

In droves.

Sunny Side Up

Little darling
The smiles returning to the faces
Little darling
It feels like years since it's been here
--The Beatles

Florida has been one of the few bright spots (!) w.r.t. state CV19 response. Despite having an age demographic that is vulnerable to the virus, Florida has maintained mortality figures far lower than most states--particularly when data are adjusted for age.

Much of the credit goes to Governor Ron DeSantis for his leadership in responses grounded in reason and true science as well as in principles of limited government and constitutional liberty.

Now the state has cranked up a website focused on prevention (e.g., exercise, healthy eating, supplements). It also discusses various early treatment strategies (e.g., monoclonal antibodies).

Hopefully other states will follow.

Give Thanks

Therefore, our God, we give you thanks
And we praise the majesty of your name
(1 Chr 29:13)

Best Way Out?

We chased our pleasures here
Dug our treasures there
But can you still recall
The time we cried
Break on through to the other side
--The Doors

One argument advanced by proponents of vaccine mandates is that vaccines are the best way out of pandemic conditions. To hold credence, this line of thought requires persuasive support, much of it scientific in nature. However, theory and evidence are far from conclusive with respect to vaccines. In fact, other alternatives garner substantial support.

The human body's primary natural line of defense against viral infection is the immune system. Immune systems are networks of biological processes that detect and respond to a variety of pathogens that threaten human health. Strong immune systems ward off infections and reduce the impact of infections that do occur. They are also adaptive, meaning that once they interact with pathogens they commonly build resistance against future invasion.

General factors associated with immune system strength are well known and largely life style related. Proper rest and nutrition. Exercise and fitness. Supplements such as Vitamin D and zinc can bolster immune system strength particularly during winter months when exposure to sunshine is reduced.

It should not be surprising that these customary principles of immune system strength appear to apply to the CV19 context. For example, studies have shown that Vitamin D deficiency is associated with CV19 mortality. Seasonality patterns associated with CV19 patterns are also evident. I have also seen several papers (not cited here) suggesting significant relationships between individual fitness levels and/or self-reported degrees of exercise and susceptibility to CV19 infection, hospitalization, and death. We also know, of course, that CV19 generally does far more damage to the elderly and those with serious comorbidities--a skew that coincides with generally compromised immune systems.

Their endogenous, preventative nature make immune systems an intuitive, and economical 'way out' of a pandemic. Why public health officials have not stressed the well established benefits of natural immune system health as a principle route away from the CV19 situation is dumbfounding and, thus, subject to speculation. What we do know is that initiatives to improve natural immunity are plausible alternatives to vaccines as countermeasures to a pandemic.

Another countermeasure involves therapeutics. Therapeutics are medicines that help you get well when you get sick. Therapeutics are primarily remedial in nature. In the context of CV19, monoclonal antibodies and ivermectin are among the remedies that have been employed to help people overcome infection.

Strangely, many public health agencies and officials have downplayed, and in some cases outright criticized, the efficacy of CV19 therapeutic treatments that clearly work in many cases. Regardless, therapeutics offer another proven measure of relief from pandemic conditions.

Assisted by therapeutics or not, people who overcome infections are prone to elevated levels of future resistance against similar illnesses. Once exposed to a pathogen, immune systems develop capacity to prevent recurrence of infection. This elevated resistance is commonly durable for long time periods. This leads us to yet another 'way out' of a pandemic supported by scientific principles: herd immunity.

The notion of herd immunity is intuitive. Thanks to our adaptive immune systems, it is difficult for us to get sick from the same pathogen twice in close by time frames. In the case of an infectious virus, as more people get sick from the virus and then recover, there are less hosts for virus to subsequently infect. At some threshold, enough people have contracted the virus and developed subsequent resistance to reinfection that it is difficult for the virus to subsequently spread. The herd has effectively become immune to the virus. 

Precisely what percentage of a population must contract a pathogen to achieve herd immunity has been subject to considerable scientific debate. Evidence suggests that herd immunity thresholds are pathogen dependent and may not be discernable until after the fact. What we do know is that cumulative infections create barriers to more infection, providing another route away from a pandemic. 

Compared to the above alternatives, a vaccine does not offer a clearly superior 'way out' of a pandemic--particularly in the case of CV19. The primary objective of a vaccine is motivate immune systems to develop defenses against particular infectious diseases. They typically do so by injecting agents into the body that resemble the disease-causing micro-organism. These agents are often sourced from weakened or dead forms of the microbe. The immune system detects the agent as a threat and then activates the usual self-defense mechanisms.

Finding the right agents for a vaccine--one that both provides effective defense against the pathogen with a safety profile free of significant side-effects--usually takes years. The time lag suggests the impracticality of building public health policy around the development of a effective, safe vaccine to combat a novel virus that creates pandemic conditions. By the time the vaccine is developed, the virus may have run its course. 

Enter the mRNA vaccines developed in response to CV19. Unlike traditional vaccines, prospective mRNA vaccines can be designed and produced in a matter of months--making them attractive as timely pandemic countermeasures. Unfortunately, the science associated with mRNA vaccines remains unproven. All previous mRNA projects have failed, meaning that vaccine candidates developed in response to the CV19 pandemic should be regarded as experimental in nature. 

One would think, then, that the allure of quick development time would be offset by a prolonged period of careful evaluation--extra careful in the case of an unproven, experimental vaccine technology. 

That hasn't happened. Instead, the CV19 vaccines were subjected to small numbers, short period, narrowly focused tests with little evaluation of long term effects, and rapidly 'approved' by regulatory agencies.

There is growing evidence that the CV19 vaccines provide, at best, short term protection against infection that erodes over the course of months. Natural immunity built from previous infection appears to be significantly more durable. There is also increasing evidence of undesirable side-effects.

Proponents of vaccine mandates, it seems, will need to reach for another argument, as ones based on scientific theory and evidence are unfavorable.

95 Candles

I believe in the kingdom come
Then all the colors will bleed into one
Bleed into one
But yes I'm still running
--U2

Your day, Dad! It would have been 95 candles on the cake.

1926 $20 PCGS MS66+ CAC TDO FS-101

Think we could have squeezed them all on your little sheet b-day cake up at Lake Erie that year?

Keep the white light shining in our direction. Miss you much.

Safetyism

We can go where we want to
Night is young and so am I
And we can dress real neat from our hats to our feet
And surprise them with a victory cry
--Men Without Hats

Dennis Prager discusses the growing phenomenon of 'safetyism.' We've noted it too. People willing to surrender God's gift of freedom for safety. The devil's trade.

Safety is a good to be purchased. Don't trade it for your freedom. 

Living your life locked in a safe house is like the servant who buried his talents in the sand. Talent is meant to be used as part of a free life, not preserved behind closed doors in an act of risk aversion.

Safetyism is waste. Waste of talent. Waste of life.

Instead of saying "Be safe" say "Be Free."

Quiet Time

Xian Chow: While you train here, listen.
Kurt Sloane: Listen to what?
Xian Chow: Just listen. With your mind. Your heart. Your whole being.
--Kickboxer

Am increasingly grateful for quiet time. Time for the mind to be still, to reflect. 

My body doesn't have to be still. In fact, some of my best quiet time is during morning workouts.

But no devices, TV, radio.

So I can think...and listen.

Slowing Down

I'm in the mood
The rhythm is right
Move to the music
We can roll all night
--Foghat

Baby Boomers are known for shaping all sorts of economic and social trends as their demographic wave has splashed thru time. Now it appears that they are setting their sights on driving norms.

I drive several streets that have fairly long stretches of unencumbered straightaway roadway. Carefree, easy driving. 

It used to be that I would rarely encounter a car ahead of me driving below the speed limit on these stretches. Nowadays it happens routinely. So much so that driving at the speed limit or above has become exception rather than rule.

The Boomers are slowing down, it seems, in more ways than one.

Gibby

Billy Chapel: Don't crowd me, Sam. I hate being crowded.
Vin Scully: So, one and two the count, and, whoops, Tuttle has really moved up on the plate. He's all over the plate right now.
Billy Chapel: Now you got the idea (in response to catcher's signal for up and in pitch).
Vin Scully: Uh-oh, down goes Tuttle! What a knockdown pitch that was! There's a message being delivered.
--For Love of the Game

The first World Series that I remember is the 1967 Fall Classic between the St Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox. Cards pitcher Bob Gibson threw games 1, 4, and 7. He won all three, throwing complete games in each and giving up only one run in 27 inning pitches while striking out 26. He also added a home run at the plate on his way to being named the series MVP.

This was Gibson's second World Series MVP, btw. In 1964 he led the Cardinals to a seven game series win vs the Yankees. He started three games in that series as well--striking out 31 in 27 innings pitched.

In 1968 the Cardinals returned to face the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. There was Bob Gibson again, throwing three complete games while striking out 35. Unfortunately, the Cards lost game 7 when a fly ball was misplayed by centerfielder Curt Flood.

His lifetime World Series stats: 3 series, 9 games started, 8 complete games, 7-2 record, 81 innings pitched (9 game x 9 innings/game), 92 strikeouts, 1.89 ERA.

Gibson also pitched one of the first games I saw at Crosley Field. Gazing from behind Crosley's bulletproof backstop behind home plate, I marveled at Gibson as he spun like a top off the mound toward first base after his delivery.

As fierce a competitor that you'll ever see ('up and in' never a prob for him), Bob Gibson passed away yesterday at the age of 84.

RIP Gibby.

Old Decisions

Give me your answer
Fill in a form
Mine for evermore
--The Beatles

"We must protect the elderly." Nearly everyone assumes that rules must be enforced to limit old people's exposure to the virus.

I deliver to nursing homes and I've been trying to tell people this. The #1 thing residents tell staff: "I want to see my family". Seems obvious that when you have little time left anyway, quality is more important than quantity. Stop assuming what the elderly want and ask them. https://t.co/2bfFGaFvPH

— Orange Hats Save Lives (@luther_snell) September 28, 2020

But the older you are, the less time you have left. Do you really want to spend your remaining days isolated from those people that mean the most to you?

This is not the choice for regulators. It is a choice for the old and their loved ones.

Ceremonial Compliance

It starts when you're always afraid
Step out of line
The man come and take you away
--Buffalo Springfield

Trevor Bauer rants about the inconsistencies associated with the so-called 'bubble' arranged by MLB for playoff games.

You're catching on, Trev. This isn't about so-called science or safety. It's about looking good and complying to institutional norms. 

"It's all for PR sake," he concludes.

Indeed. Ceremonial compliance in order to acquire or maintain legitimacy.

We're In!

"You know what we get today, Brooks? We get to play BASEBALL!"
--Jimmy Morris (The Rookie)

Big shout out to the Cincinnati Reds on clinching a playoff birth last night. Left for dead a couple weeks back, the Reds strung together a big streak culminating last night with a dominating performance against the Minnesota Twins.

Now hoping we can win at least one of the final two games of the series to seal an above .500 season.

Vitamin D

Little darlin'
The smiles returning to the faces
Little darlin'
It seems like years since it's been here
--The Beatles

Interesting paper (full version here) indicating strong relationship between severe Vitamin D deficiency country-level CV19 mortality rates in Europe. Severe Vitamin D deficiency is defined as seroprevalence < 25 nmol/L. The researchers use 2019 Vitamin D European population data reported in a recent European medical journal.

These are high correlation coefficients and, as suggested by Graph 2, the relationship is strengthening with time.

Lends additional credence to the role of seasonality and geographic region in explaining viral effects.


btw, here is a fine video that reviews the science on Vitamin D and viral interactions.

Nursing Homes

Ben Luckett: So you think it's like Bernie said? We're cheating nature?
Mary Luckett: Yes.
Ben Luckett: Well, I'll tell ya. The way nature's been cheating us, I don't mind cheating her a little.
--Cocoon

Ioannidis et al discussed the large fraction of COVID-19 deaths coming from nursing homes. Consistent with their findings, focused analysis of US data suggest that nursing homes currently account for about 40% of domestic fatalities.

Nursing home deaths account for more than 60% of deaths in several states. In Minnesota, almost 85% of all COVID-19 deaths come from nursing home communities.

Even with the susceptibility of the elderly to the coronavirus--a characteristic that has been understood since the early days of the pandemic, this number is astonishingly high. The intuitive policy response from the beginning was to implement measures to protect this vulnerable group.

Stunningly, it seems that policymakers in many states have been doing just the opposite. Officials in some states, including California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York, have been actively pushing COVID-19 elderly out of hospitals and into nursing homes. In many cases this action has subsequently ignited deadly infection spreads among residents.

Meanwhile, these same state officials remain committed to enforcing draconian lockdowns of their broad populations who, as the data continue to show, face minimal risk from the virus.

It is difficult to imagine a more upside down policy response.

What is not so difficult to imagine is the specter of lawsuits, and perhaps even criminal charges, brought against state officials whose policies have resulted in the deaths of perhaps tens of thousands of elderly nursing home residents. There can be little doubt that their actions have created the deadliest of all cul-de-sac effects.

Cul-De-Sac Effect

Our house
It has a crowd
There's always something happening
And it's usually quite loud
--Madness

Soon after states began to issue lockdown orders, an academic from Yale penned a NYT editorial using a war analogy. Waging an open war against the virus using across-the-board lockdown strategies risked broad collateral damage. He suggested that a 'surgical strike' might be more in order--one that protects the elderly and other at-risk groups while letting those not at significant risk resume their lives to prevent economic collapse.

Two months later his words remain wise.

He also expressed concern that, by sending families home to huddle amongst themselves for extended periods of time, risk of transmitting the virus might grow within those groups.

I've labeled this the cul-de-sac effect. When we leave our homes each morning, we enter into a cross hatched open network where we interact with many people for relatively short periods of time. At the end of the day we retreat to a cul-de-sac--a closed network of fewer, more intimate contacts.

Shutting down didn’t work: 66% of New York coronavirus hospitalizations are people at HOME https://t.co/9iqOYp6TFD via @MailOnline

— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) May 8, 2020

There is growing evidence that the cul-de-sac is in fact a major source of COVID infection. For example, data from New York indicate that most of the current COVID-19 hospitalizations in the state are coming from people who were staying at home.

Then, of course, there are nursing home and long term care cul-de-sacs that, when not properly secured, have become death traps for the elderly.

While potentially increasing exposure to infection, cul-de-sacs can also decrease resistance to them. If people are forced to remain in the cul-de-sacs by stay at home orders, then they will get less sunshine Vitamin D exposure and be more sedentary. Weakened immune systems are less capable of fighting infections of any type.

Indeed, the cul-de-sac effect may help explain why there is little evidence that lockdowns have been effective at curtailing COVID mortality.

Freedom at the Door

I want to fly like an eagle
Till I'm free
Fly through the revolution
--Steve Miller Band

Hard not to smile at this pic as winter gets long in the tooth, er beak.

just an average winter day in Decorah, Iowa pic.twitter.com/tSutwTmNuj

— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) February 19, 2020

When birds of freedom greet you at the door, you know it's going to be a great day.