Changing Relationships

There's no sense in pretending
Your eyes give you away
Something inside you is feeling like I do
We said all there is to say
--Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers

Mainstream media has been busy hyping increased CV19 case counts in several so-called 'hot spot' states, yet hospitalizations and deaths have not commensurately moved higher.

Sure, case counts are likely going higher in large part due to more CV19 testing happening on a daily basis. But why the breakdown in relationship between cases and deaths (or hospitalizations for that matter)?

One possibility is that there has been a change in the demographics of infection. For example, Florida's governor has noted that, whereas the average age associated with CV19 infection was mid-60s a few weeks back, today the average age is below 40. This points to the likelihood that there are more younger people now being tested. It also seems likely that increased mobility among the young as states reopen introduces more chances for infection. Since young people are far less likely to be seriously impaired by CV19 infection, that could explain the declining relationship between case counts and deaths.

Another possibility is that the virus itself is losing strength. One way to think about it is that, early in the progression of transmissible disease, pathogens target the most vulnerable first in a survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary pattern. As the 'easy prey' are eliminated, then locating attractive hosts becomes increasingly difficult. The most virile versions of the pathogen may go into the ground with victims.

Immunity could also increase. Resistance builds among those who have been infected and have since recovered. Natural immunity could also build. Virus infections are notoriously seasonal. The 'flu season' generally ends in spring as people get outside more and collect sunshine Vitamin D that strengthens their immune systems.

It is also possible that the virus itself might mutate into weaker forms as well.

We're likely seeing a combination of both. Younger demographics of case counts and declining virility are lowering health risks of CV19. This is changing relationships between case counts and outcomes.

When will the media catch onto this is? We can be sure that it will be far after the fact.