Texas Hedge

Billy Mack is a detective down in Texas
You know he knows just exactly what the facts is
--Steve Miller Band

Previously we examined Florida data showing the changing relationship between CV19 counts and measures of severity. Higher case counts have not translated into more hospitalization or deaths.

In another 'hot spot' state, Texas, hospitalizations associated with CV19 have reportedly increased, particularly in some municipalities such as Houston. This graphic is telling:

The blue and red lines represent hospital and ICU beds occupied by COVID patients. They have been increasing. The green line represents the total state hospital bed census. No change.

These data reinforce prior observations, some from Texas, suggesting people being hospitalized WITH the virus rather than FOR it.

Alex Berenson adds some interesting observations from a Texas hospital exec:

Final screenshot. pic.twitter.com/E5cAMJOjwl

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 30, 2020

The exec suggests that during the month of June, his chain of hospitals has tested more than 2000 people with a 20% positive rate (was ~5% previously). The vast majority exhibit mild to very mild symptoms. Average age of infection is mid-30s. He notes that CV19 patients are very different now compared to previously. When testing resources were tight, most of these people would not have met the criteria for receiving a test.

What has been motivating these people to get tested? The exec estimates that about half are employer driven. People are returning to work with a sneeze or a cough, and the employer sends them home and tells them to get tested. The other half merely want to know.

Many ICU beds are being filled with patients that put off going to the hospital out of fear earlier and they are now really sick. Many of these are testing positive once admitted for something else.

He also suggests many discharge planners are being pressured to indicate CV19 as the primary diagnosis. The pay is better and many hospitals are in difficult financial positions.

The exec closes by suggesting that all of this is generally good news. More people testing positive with milder symptoms implies a lower death rate than the 'headline' reports.