Younger Hospitalizations?

They're seeing through the promises
And all the lies they dare to tell
Is it heaven or hell?
They know very well
--Journey

Mainstream media hyperventilating over new highs in CV19 case counts...

...even though positive tests are largely a function of total test counts (which are hitting daily records as well). And, although death counts continue trending down and are off 90% from peak highs...

...the media is now fixating on hospitalizations. which have ticked up:

The reasoning mind should recognize one disconnect right away. Because hospitalizations are not a lagging indicator relative to positive cases, why are hospitalizations up only 5-10% from their recent lows while counts are up about 100%?

But why are hospitalizations up at all? This is a fair question since the average age of a person found to be actively infected with CV19 has fallen considerably over the past few weeks. Since younger people are far less likely to be seriously impaired by CV19 infection, we shouldn't expect positive cases among these people to translate into hospital stays.

Of course, lacking aggregate hospital census data, we don't know the age demographics associated with upticks in admission. It is possible that the demographic hasn't changed. Even though more young people are testing positive for the virus, it may still be that it is primarily older people being admitted for virus treatment.

However, some medical personnel are suggesting that the data are being influenced by people who are returning to hospitals in larger numbers for routine care--including elective surgeries that were postponed during the height of the pandemic. All hospital patients are now being tested for CV19 as standard procedure.

I’m a Texas physician. We’re seeing patients for routine care that just happen to be Covid+. They come to the ER for kidney stones, appendicitis, etc. and get dx with Covid on admission. This makes the Covid situation look worse than it really is.

— Jeff Stone (@JeffStone9) June 24, 2020

Some of them inevitably test positive. And since many of these patients are younger, this helps explain the phenomenon among young people. Many young people are not testing positive for CV19 and then hospitalized. Instead, they are hospitalized for other conditions and THEN testing positive for the virus.

Perspective from a hospital exec who has emailed before and whose chain includes several Sunbelt facilities. He is highly confident overall (though note that his hospitals are seeing shorter lengths of stay, which cuts a little against the longer censuses). pic.twitter.com/VE6BIFKJyQ

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 24, 2020

Stated differently, it may be that the uptick in CV19 hospitalization is due to people being admitted for something other than the virus--and not needing treatment for the virus.

btw, there is also some evidence of double counting among hospital patients as well:

From someone in Arizona (I have confirmed his identity). Obviously, cases are really rising, but there seems to be at least some double-counting going on. pic.twitter.com/NpUJnv3tt5

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 25, 2020

In any event, the resumption of more normal traffic flow to hospitals coupled with the standard protocol of testing all hospital patients for the virus helps explain a possible relationship between CV19 infection and hospitalizations among younger people.