Ignoring the Skew

Here I am in silence
Looking 'round without a clue
I find myself alone again
All alone with you
--Information Society

When the media reports CV19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, they rarely make an effort to split the results out by the associated demographics. Consequently, when people read that CV19 numbers are increasing, they naturally see themselves or people similar to them laying in the ICU bed.

But as Stanford's John Ioannidis once again reminds us, CV19 data are skewed toward the elderly, particularly those in nursing homes and possessing comorbidities. 

Lower age groups sport small infection fatality rates (IFRs). For example younger people face the following risk of death from CV19 infection as estimated on p. 12:

0-19 yrs: 0.0027% IFR

20-29: 0.014%

30-39: 0.031%

40-49: 0.082%

50-59: 0.27%

60-69: 0.59%

For comparison, median IFR in community dwelling elderly was estimated to be 2.4%--with nursing home residents even higher (p. 11).

The results once again suggest the prudence of public health strategies that focus on protecting the elderly and other higher-risk groups rather than the general population. 

They also suggest the ethical problems associated with media reports that ignore the skew.