Surprise Spec

The news slows, people forget
The shares crash, hopes are dashed
People forget, forget they're hiding
--The Who

Earlier this year I went long the US dollar, an unlikely trade for me given my view of the world.

Am in another one now as I've initiated a position in longer dated Treasuries via TLT. Nice cup-and-handlish pattern. More importantly, recent action in govies is consistent with the notion that deflationary pressures are again building.

The time horizon on the above chart only captures the last six months. A multi-year chart indicates that the TLT touched 115 during the early 2009 decline, suggesting perhaps a 15% move if we get going in that direction again.

I certainly 'see' the downside as well, given the Fed's nearly unlimited Power of the Press. In the near term, however, I'm thinking that the phantom of deflation may gain the upper hand.

Small potatoes position and doubt it will grow into much more than that. But wanted some exposure.

position in TLT