Friday, February 5, 2010

Carry On, Carry Out

Masquerading as a man with a reason
My charade is the event of the season
And if I claim to be a wise man
It surely means that I don't know

--Kansas

Sold my long dollar position into another gappy move higher this am. Could the greenback continue higher? Absolutely and I wouldn't be surprised.


But the oscillators are getting pretty twisty on the upside, suggesting that the 'easy' part of this move may be behind us for now (as if any trade is 'easy').

In hindsight, btw, can you see the upside resolution to the textbook reverse head & shoulders pattern?

This is what a dollar carry trade unwind looks like. Stocks, commodities, other risky assets are sold, and dollars are bought to cover.

Still short some S&P which 'should' participate in further carry trade reversal.

position in SPX

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