Sunday, July 18, 2010

Budgetary Pretense

"You guys have lots of bonds."
--Lana (Risky Business)

The Obama administration has forecast a 10 yr spending budget (blue dotted line below). Others have issued a more 'realistic' forecast using their assumptions (red dotted line below).


If the economy hits another deflationary air pocket in the next few months, then my sense is that they're both too low.
Assume for sake of discussion that the red line is accurate. Current US public debt outstanding is about $13.2 trillion. The red line above forecasts about $1.5 trillion/yr on average, or $15 trillion in spending in the upcoming decade.

Seems unlikely that the bond market will finance all of that. Which leaves taxing, or inflating.

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