Let Go My Cargo

"They got a lotta trouble on that ship."
--Admiral Bates (Under Siege)

One indicator that has failed to confirm the thesis that 'things are getting better' is the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI is an aggregate of cargo shipping rates. Because the BDI is not subject to the vagaries of government data series, it's 'purity level' as an indicator of global trade merits some respect.

After cratering during last Fall's market meltdown, the BDI found traction about 3 months ahead of global equity markets.

Now one has to wonder whether the BDI is once again in the lead. It's been falling for three months, giving back half the gain from the preceding run up.

Should stock markets follow the 3 month lag, then a prime time for a rollover in indexes like the SPX would be right around here.

position in SPX