Saturday, August 25, 2012

Bank Runs During Inflation

"How come the bad guys always have the good cars?"
--Ray Hughes (Running Scared)

Bank runs are often associated with deflation. Using the Depressionary Bailey Building & Loan vision, people rush to withdraw bank deposits when confidence is lost in bank solvency. Solvency is typically questioned when it is suspected that bank investments and loans have gone bad (read: decline in price), thereby limiting the ability to make depositors whole. The greater the price decline, the smaller the price decline necessary to wipe out bank equity.

However, banks runs can also occur during inflationary periods. Here, the primary concern is not bank solvency. Rather, depositors are worried about the value of their cash on deposit. If prices rise steeply, people will begin to withdraw their deposits and convert their paper currency into tangible goods and hard assets.

Initially I was thinking that people withdrawing cash in size from banks during inflation would reinforce a vicious inflation cycle. But would it? As folks withdraw cash, banks would seemingly have to sell assets to maintain their reserve ratios. This would put downward pressure on prices--at least the price of financial assets.

The issue seems to be the fractional reserve characteristic of modern financial systems. Its design is inflationary. Depositors pulling money from banks, whether it be for inflationary or deflationary concerns, ultimately seems deflationary.

2 comments:

dgeorge12358 said...

Correctly defined, credit creation is inflationary. Bank runs reverse this process, hence are deflationary, yet can happen under any circumstances if depositors lose confidence. Greece is a real time example of assets leaving the Greek banking system and moving across borders and under mattresses.

dgeorge12358 said...

The Federal Reserve will use its legal authority to create digital money to guarantee the survival of its regional branches' owners: the largest commercial banks.

The Federal Reserve will inflate enough to keep large banks solvent. It will not inflate whenever hyperinflation threatens to enable borrowers from large banks to repay their loans with worthless money. Then it will stop inflating.
~Gary North