Minding the Gap

Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
If I stay there will be double
--The Clash

Bought some DBC early last week when prices were falling into the abyss. My thought was that if markets reversed higher, then this might be good for a trade up to about $28.

Why $28? Because once prices broke below that level last month, $28 defines a formidable resistance level. In the context of technical analysis, resistance defines a price level likely to retard further price advances due to the presence of latent supply--such as all those people who bought around $28 early last month and are now trying to get out at a price that lets them come close to break even. Short sellers may also lean on this level and sell come shares short with tight defined risk (i.e., if prices go north of $28, then shorts consider that as an indicator that this was a bad trade, and subsequently stop themselves out).

Moreover, gaps similar to the one that reflected the price breakdown in mid Sept often serve as magnets if/when prices retrace. Indeed, there's a saying among technicians that 'all gaps are meant to be filled.'

To add one more tidbit of rationale to my DBC sale, short term stochastics (e.g., the MACD shown above) were looking pretty toppy, suggesting an 'overbought' condition in the near term. Markets tend to ebb and flow between optimism and pessimism on multiple time frames; presently we may be approaching an excess of optimism in the near term.

As such, when DBC lifted into the gap area today, it was time for me to go.

no positions