Monday, October 3, 2011

Hedge Off

Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
If I stay it will be double
--The Clash

The battleground support level that was SPX 1120 finally gave way today in a significant way, with the index spilling lower to about 1100 by day's end. Technically, the 1025-1050 provides the next substantial layer of support.


I unwound my short position into this move. Covered about half into the initial break into the 1115 area and the remainder into the thrust toward 1100.

Why cover it all here? First, for me shortin's hard mon, even when I'm using it as a hedge. Was starting to worry over the position a bit too much and, after this thrust lower, felt prudent to take the position off and look at the situation with fresh eyes tomorrow.

Moreover, some measures of sentiment point toward extreme near term bearishness. It would not take much news to ignite a pretty strong short covering rally.

Should stock melt lower from here, I'll be looking to put on some long side risk for a trade. Should we rally, I'll likely look to re-engage the short side to some degree.

With my hedge off, I'm currently at ~15% risky assets (CSCO, scattered commodities) with the remainder in cash. Yes, I feel a bit 'naked.' But something tells me that this feeling won't last long.

position in CSCO, GLD, SLV, RJA

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