Eighties Envy

You must be my Lucky Star
'Cause you make the darkness seem so far
And when I'm lost you'll be my guide
I just turn around and you're by my side
--Madonna

Peter Atwater pens what is one of the more concise explanations as to why this recession may wind up being unlike any over the past 30 yrs.

In a word: debt. We have way more of it this time than before, and we've only added to it during the last 18 months of 'crisis mgt.'

Moreover, social attitudes toward debt appear to be shifting. People want less of it, not more. If true, then reflating an economy via additional credit creation won't work this time.

He cautions that the recent uptick in stocks, economic indicators may be a mirage. No V this time; we're merely relieving oversold pressure before downtrend resumes.

Couldn't agree w/ Peter more.

position in S&P