Ballot Bets

"If you are not inside, you are outside."
--Gordon Gekko (Wall Street)

Some are watching the 'prediction markets' such as Intrade as to the direction of the Massachusetts special election. The idea is that it 'pays' to watch how real money is betting on the outcomes of things.

Makes sense to be sure.

But I'll never forget the night of the 2004 presidential election, when the contract indicated a virtual lock for Kerry. Then, after the Ohio results came in, the Kerry contract cratered while the Bush contract zoomed to the moon--pretty much a 10 bagger move in a small timeframe.

Just a lesson that under conditions of imperfect info, and emotion, the money is not necessarily 'smart.'

no positions