Thursday, June 25, 2009

Grand Illusion

But someday soon we'll start to ponder
What on earth is this spell we're under
We made the grade and still we wonder
Who the hell we are
--Styx

Anyone with eyes can see that most econometric series maintained by the government are biased in their data collection and/or reporting methods.

Even some of the mainstream media are noting problems.

The ramifications? GDP and its growth: lower than reported. Unemployment: higher than reported. Consumer prices and their increase: higher than reported.

If you're receiving social security or holding TIPs, your increases and coupons are less than they should be.

A nice site that tries to adjust for government manipulation of the data is John Williams' SGS site.

Always be skeptical of data collection methodology and values--particularly if generated by government.

2 comments:

OSR said...

Unemployment is blatantly understated--it has to be sneaking up on 20% in places like N. Indiana and Michigan.

fordmw said...

According to some reports I've seen, if we were measuring the unemployment rate like we did in the 30s, then we'd be right around 20% nationwide.

Here in Ohio we're north of 12% using current methodology.