Thursday, April 9, 2009

Pony Express

"Seems like you're a man trying to give away money and don't have too many takers."
Jed Cooper (Hang 'Em High)

Wells Fargo's (WFC) accounting shenanigans was good for a 20% pop on the Bank Index (BKX) today. In times past such a one day move would be unheard of. But when markets are sick, outsized move occur routinely.

Chart gazing reveals a near text book breakout above resistance today. Tranched resistance awaits above at BKX 40 and 50.


Also noteworthy was Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) credit downgrade. Interestingly, Berk's fall from hollowed AAA didn't dent the stock. In fact it was up 3-4% on the day.

When battered stocks no longer head lower on bad news and rip higher on good news, that's typically bullish. More market upside seems in the cards.

I've been expecting a stimulus/optimism fed sustained upside move for some time now. Perhaps we're into it. I'm not doing anything special about it at the present. Am thinking about pruning miscellaneous long positions (e.g., RJI, VLO) into further liftage. It's in the back of my mind that perhaps the short side will beckon down the road.

But that point (if/when) feels like it's a long way off. Right now I'm a spectator, and a pretty disengaged one at that.

positions in RJI, VLO

2 comments:

OSR said...

I hear you. This rally was telegraphed but I still couldn't get on board, due to the smell. I think we are in between phases of the crisis, so I'm taking this opportunity to teach myself rigorous value analysis.

fordmw said...

Approaches based on valuation sure seem uncrowded in a world where everyone's a trader.