Thursday, April 2, 2009

Bad to the Bone

"I'm fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean, 'bad?'"
--Dr Peter Venkman (Ghostbusters)

Big rally today on firming belief that collective global stimulus and oversight, M2M rule changes, et al has helped markets put in a significant bottom.

Rather than stocks, however, my eyes keep migrating towards the dollar. At some point, all of this money printing seems certain to crush the USD. Consensus seems to be that this won't happen overnight and that, well, we'll worry about that later.

Technically, the dollar's multi-month short covering rally appears to be running out of gas. The last few days have seen a weak bounce off the uptrend line with the USD seemingly destined to test support once more.

Some believe that a weaker dollar is a necessary precursor to a sustainable stock market lift here (dollar debasement/inflation). In the near term, perhaps, but history suggests that destroying a currency is extremely 'bad' over time.

position in USD

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