Breaking Good

And when the night is cold and dark
You can see, you can see light
--Corey Hart

You wouldn't know it by mainstream media headlines this morning, but the COVID-19 evidence is breaking decidedly toward the good side this morning. Infection, hospitalization, and mortality metrics, are beginning to roll over--particularly with respect to rate-of-change. For instance, new daily cases are declining in virus epicenters such as Italy.

Italy has reported an average of 4,428 new COVID-19 cases over the last 5 days, the lowest 5-day average since March 15-19. pic.twitter.com/EU5bgerR7B

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 3, 2020

Many public health forecasting models of COVID-related mortality and hospital capacity utilization suddenly appear far too high. The institutional prediction community is now scurrying to revise its forecasts lower in order to remain marginally relevant.

Perhaps the best news is that minds continue to wake up to the notion that the cure brought about government intervention is likely to be worse than the disease.

Which is the bigger threat ?

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 6, 2020

Discounting capacity may be returning to markets as well. The Dow is +1,000 this am as investors sniff out possibilities favorable outcomes from a situation that is breaking good.