Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Curve Ball

Upside down
Boy you turn
Inside out
And round and round
--Diana Ross

Continued decline in 10 yr T-note yields has further inverted portions of the yield curve.


Three month T-bill yields currently stand at about 2.35% while 10 yr yields have fallen to about 2.26%. Negative 10 basis pts doesn't seem like much, but a year ago 3 month yields were ~1.9% while 10 yr yields were nearly 1% higher at 2.8%.

It is that relative change, along with the history of inverted yield curves being harbingers of recession, that is weighing on the collective psyche.

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