Saturday, August 27, 2016

Recession Probability

So hold on
Here we go
Hold on
To nothing we know
--The Motels

JP Morgan estimates the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to be 37%--the highest odds since the beginning of the present 'expansion' in early 2009.

Eyeballing suggests that the last recession spawned by credit collapse commenced right around this level of estimated probability.

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