Induction Errors

Right behind you, I see the millions
On you, I see the glory
From you, I get opinions
From you, I get the story
--The Who

Inductive reasoning is the process of reaching conclusions or generalizing from specific observations. For example, one might observe increasing temperature trends in the midst of industrial activity and conclude that industrial activity increases temperature.

Induction is particularly useful in the early stages of seeking truth. A phenomenon is observed, and induction initiates the sense-making process.

However, induction is prone to error. Spurious correlations can be confused with cause-and-effect. Small sample size of individual observations may lead to sweeping generalizations that do not hold across entire populations.

Cognitive biases can exacerbate induction errors. The availability heuristic favors data that are readily accessible. For example, we are prone to rely on recent experiences and observations when seeking inductive conclusions. Essentially, convenience samples form the basis for conclusions.

Confirmation bias, a.k.a. selective reasoning, also taints inductive processes. People are prone to seek out cases or evidence that confirm our points of view while discounting or completely dismissing conflicting evidence. Confirmation bias impairs critical thinking as it discourages search for informed alternatives.

To manage potential for error, induction seemingly needs to be complemented by deductive processes that spark minds to test inductive premises for validity. By doing so, perhaps fast and slow thinking can be coordinated and managed.