RISE 2013

Go closer hold the land
Feel partly no more than grains of sand
--Yes

For the 3rd consecutive year, I am attending the RISE (Redefining Investment Strategy Education) conference at the University of Dayton. RISE is one of the largest student-centered conferences on investing. I would guess that there are about 3000 attendees this year.

The first day is always a 'macro' day at UD arena where industry leaders and pundits gather to discuss broad issues and trends. I missed the morning sessions, which included a panel discussion with two Fed bank presidents, Charles Evans (Chicago) and Dennis Lockhart (Atlanta). Apparently they signaled that the Fed intends to maintain its zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) for the next two years, which is really no news given recent FOMC statements.

An afternoon "Markets" panel featured Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab, Phil Orlando of Federated Investors, Stephanie Link of TheStreet, and Barry Knapp of Barclays. All were bullish; the only negative voice was the moderator, David Asman of Fox Business. I was reminded of a similar situation two years ago where a moderator from Bloomberg provided a lone cautionary voice.

Three of the four discussants were very bullish on stocks, citing the usual reasons (easy Fed, equities as the only game in town given interest rates, Fed model type valuations, stong corp balance sheets, skeptical retail investors, etc). Only Knapp voiced reservations about the near term, noting that various indicators were 'flashing warning signs' to him. If there was a correction, "I would buy it," he said.

None of the panel felt that low interest rates or massive bond buying by the Fed were significant issues. Rather, these are plusses for equities, in their view.

Perhaps the best question came from a sharp student, who asked whether he should be concerned that all panelists are clearly bullish. To which the panel essentially replied that not all people are bullish--just them (presumably they are the 'smart ones').

Data obtained from attendees suggested general bullishness among attendees, with the average forecast for the Dow at year end being between 15 and 16K.

The final panel of the day discussed the future of the financial services industry. While the content of the discussion was interesting, I was particularly impressed by panelist Roger Ferguson, a former Fed governor who is now CEO of TIAA-CREF. He certainly holds some views that I do not agree with, and he's been affiliated with institutions that have done big time damage. But I found his comments, particularly on questions coming from students, thoughtful and spirited.

Also notewothy: throughout the entire day, I heard not one mention of commodities.

position in SPX, Treasuries, commodities