Sunday, April 7, 2013

Bearish Bonds, Bullish Stocks?

You must have heard the cautionary tales
The dangers hidden on the cul-de-sac trails
--Pete Townshend

As interest rates have been driven lower by zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) worldwide, people are turning negative on Treasuries and other sovereign debt, while remaining bullish on other asset classes such as stocks.

This makes little sense.

Asset prices are floating on an ocean of liquidity created by ZIRP, as investors borrow cheap funds from central banks and invest the proceeds in the securities of all stripes.

When Treasury yields rise, the carry trade will come off, and those securities bought with cheap credit will be sold.

If you are bearish USTs, then shouldn't you be bearish on all asset classes linked to low Treasury rates?

position in SPX, Treasuries

1 comment:

dgeorge12358 said...

Alexander Hamilton started the U.S. Treasury with nothing, and that was the closest our country has ever been to being even.
~Will Rogers