Crude Awakenings

After three days in the desert fun
I was looking at a river bed
And the story it told of a river that flowed
Made me sad to think it was dead
--America

For the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has acknowledged in its annual report that we're past 'peak oil.' As noted by the author here, even the IEA's future assumptions about crude oil replacement over the next 20-30 yrs seem pretty courageous.

Seems to me chance favor much higher energy prices over the next decade unless the world economy, particularly w.r.t. China and other big growers, stumbles for a prolonged period. That may very well happen from where I sit, which is why I'm not long a ton of energy as well as other commodities.

That said, crude is still way off its 2008 highs and has been behaving relatively well in an overall market context that has turned pretty volatile. I like energy as an upside hedge against my generally bearish outlook, and will be looking for opportunities to add to my modest position as opportunities arise.

Preferred vehicles continue to be the commodity ETFs/ETNs over energy-related equities.

positions in DBE, DBO, RJI