Sunday, May 16, 2010

Specs in Black Hats

We can dance if we want to
We can leave your friends behind
Cause your friends don't dance and if they don't dance
Well they're no friends of mine
--Men Without Hats

Not sure why I was surprised to read this. Whenever markets move against them, politicians, managers, and pundits that have skin in the game are quick to point fingers at 'speculators' for pushing prices in the 'wrong' direction.

The UK blamed George Soros, Tyco blamed David Tice, O'Reilly blamed oil traders. The list goes on and on.

Such claims are always prepostererous. If speculators truly made prices 'wrong', then those who think so could make a boat load of money by simply taking the other of the trade. In the case of Greece, politicians and other advocates should welcome the lower prices of their outstanding bonds, buy back a ton of it, and make a killing. Greece would thereby retire debt at depressed prices. Kind of like settling your credit card debt at pennies on the dollar.

They won't do that, of course, because in reality they either see no value in it, or their past actions leave them broke and unable to take action--which of course in Greece's case is the gist of things.

It may take a while but market forces, however constrained, seek fair value.

More often than not, pointing fingers at 'speculators' for self-created problems preceeds a death spiral in the related securities.

position in SPX

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