Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Who Are You

I staggered back to the underground
And the breeze blew back my hair
I remember throwing punches around
And preaching from my chair
--The Who

Watching the shares traded pile up each day, I like to consider who's pressing the buy/sell buttons. Categorical possibilities include:

retail folks (investors and traders)
mutual funds
institutional money (e.g., pension funds, insurance cos)
hedge funds
trading desks of financial firms
venture capital/private equity
government entities (domestic and foreign)

I'd love to have a daily profile of the percentage of all shares bought and sold by these categorial entities, as I believe this would provide excellent insight into the method behind the madness.

The 'average' profile seems likely to change over time. Right now, it 'feels' like institutions, hedgies, trading desks, and perhaps gov't are dominating the action.

Retail and mutual funds are likely to be sitting on the sidelines (low percentage of overall activity right now), as collective mood of the masses moves toward more risk aversion. Should this risk aversion capture the well-heeled set, then other categories such as hedgies should reduce their activity as well.

Before it's over, perhaps government will dominate the action.

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