Monday, August 3, 2009

Fade Trade

So glad weve almost made it
So sad they had to fade it
Everybody wants to rule the world
--Tears for Fears

Markets gapped higher this morning in part on Alan Greenspan's suggestion that the economy has bottomed. One thing I've learned from studying markets is that any forecast offered by Elmer tends to be a fadeable event.

As markets trade currently, the SPX and COMP are right up against those round number levels (1000 and 2000 respectively). My buddy Toddo has four legs in the bear costume for the first time in quite a while.

Personally, I've been using this liftage to pare long side exposure. Most incremental positions have been sold. Planning to sell ag-based commodity position into further jig.

I also initiated an S&P short. Leaning against these levels seems seems a worthy fade trade.

positions in DBA, SPX

2 comments:

OSR said...

I've been scalping August calls for the last week and I am disturbed. All I do is find an optionable stock with a low P/E, buy OTM calls and wait a few days. Forget fundamentals or even common sense. RAD is up 16% today, FITB is up 30% in 5 days, AIG is up 3.5% and so on.

Either we are seeing mania or this is the beginning of hyperinflation.

fordmw said...

Or perhaps the extreme movements associated with lots of leverage in the system.