Monday, March 2, 2009

Pin Action

"Do you think, if I called up Shute, that he'd come over and wrestle me in one of the banquet rooms? I'm not sure I can take it very much longer."
--Louden Swain (Vision Quest)

If you wondered what markets feel like in meltdown mode, this is it. Shedding a couple of percent daily, rampant pessimism, longstanding stalwarts getting sold. The Dow is now printing a 6 handle.

Lots of folks dialing 1-800-Get Me Out Now to relieve the pain.

As the news flow heads from dark to darker, it's hard for the contrarian in me not to wonder whether we're close to a bottom.

2 comments:

OSR said...

This has been a far more orderly exit than Sept. or Nov, as the VIX remained near 50. I've never had any luck calling extrema, so I restrict my bottom analysis for Hooters visits. Nevertheless, I've found that looking at the composition of remaining market participants is an enlightening excercise.

fordmw said...

Some indicators suggest orderly exit. Others (e.g., Lowry's, some sentiment indicators) suggest extremity. I like to look at the entire soup for clues.