Hope Chest

When it will be right, I don't know
What it will be like, I don't know
We live in hope of deliverance from the darkness that surrounds us
--Paul McCartney

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was on 60 Minutes claiming that the recession will be over inside of one year. This is making headlines this morning and markets are up nicely.

Perhaps the recession will end quickly and heaven knows markets have been looking for an excuse to rally.

If you're basing your investment decisions and outlook on the prognostications of Mr Bernanke, you'd be wise to first consider his track record. The Fed chief has presided over the largest credit bubble in the history of the world and its subsequent poppage. Not once did he foresee the problem--at least on the record.

Chances of his ability to suddenly be able to forecast accurately seem pretty small.