Taft's Foresight

"This minute the Russians are watching their boards, trying to figure out what we're up to. If we can't convince them it's an accident we're trying to correct by any means, we're going to have something on our hands that nobody bargained for, and only a lunatic wants."
--Brigadier General Warren A. Black (Fail Safe)

Echoing yesterday's missive, Ron Paul argues that the expansion of NATO to Russia's doorstep is central to the Ukraine conflict. He also notes that concerns about NATO's focus on collective military force aimed at Russia can be traced back to the treaty's origin.

Ohio Senator Robert Taft was labeled an isolationist because he opposed entering foreign wars and alliances. In 1949 he voted against the North Atlantic Treaty, and he gave an insightful speech as to why. He stressed the possibility, similar to these pages, that surrounding Russia with military arms could prove dangerous at some point:

"It may decide that the arming of western Europe, regardless of its present purpose, looks to be an attack on Russia. Its view may be unreasonable, and I think it is. But from the Russian standpoint it may not seem unreasonable. They may well decide that if war is the certain result, that war might better occur now rather than after the arming of Europe is completed."

More than 70 years later, NATO is still expanding the 'the arming of Europe' around Russia. Taft suggested that Russia might preempt perceived threat by engaging in conflict before that arming is completed. Ukraine as a NATO member would certainly be another step toward completion.

Consequently, as Taft foresaw, Russia finally acted.