Monday, May 11, 2020

Peak Mask

"Look at all those people down there. They follow the rules. For what? They're letting fear lead them."
--Han (The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift)

Herd behavior tends to stampede past the reasonable to the unreasonable. The mask phenomenon demonstrates this in spades.

At my neighborhood grocery store, the rare mask wearer has been replaced with at least eight in 10 looking like either a doctor going into surgery or Jesse James entering a bank.

Outside, where risk of transmitting any infection is very low, 25%+ may be masked up--even when walking alone.

Do masks 'work?' Advice from the so-called public health 'experts' has been equivocal. Many who said early on that masks didn't matter now say they do. Some states have ordered mask wearing in public. But there has been no conclusive evidence. 

The experts, it seems, have merely joined the herd.

That mask wearing has intensified even as data suggest that the threat is passing demonstrates a classic characteristic of herd psychology. Herd behavior usually peaks somewhere on the other side of the objective.

If the objective is to profit from rising stock prices, the herd is still in stocks after prices start to fall. If the objective is to avoid infection from a communicable disease, then it is likely that people will be putting on masks even as threat of infection dissipates.

When will we hit peak mask?

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