Less Trade, Higher Prices

We stand to lose all time
A thousand answers by 
In our hand
--Yes

To answer your question, Liz, yes. Two natural forces in particular have been keeping price increases at bay over the past couple of decades--despite escalating inflationary policies of central banks seeking to do otherwise. One has been the broad integration of several powerful innovations, particularly with respect to info tech, into production processes. Small computers, the internet, wireless, et al have dramatically improved worker productivity. As output/hr goes up, there is downward pressure on prices.

For those who believe globalization has been a significant force bringing and keeping inflation down globally ... do you believe deglobalization could represent upside inflation risk (if not near-term, longer term)?

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 27, 2020

The second natural force has been expansion of global trade, which allows world economies to realize gains from specialized production. When division of labor increases, learning effects and lower switching costs boost productivity. When specialized producers exchange their output, those productivity gains are collectively shared. Those shared productivity gains exert downward pressure on prices.

Restraints on global trade, whether those restraints come from protectionist tariffs, bans to quell the spread of illness, or other sources, eliminate a big source of downward price pressure.

As such, a big wind in the face of aggressive central bankers seeking to 'create inflation' ceases to blow, and higher prices of goods and service become more likely.