Dynamic Response

Dr Peter Venkman: Ray has gone bye-bye, Egon. What have you got left?
Dr Egon Spengler: Sorry, Venkman. I'm terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought.
--Ghostbusters

A motivator of coronavirus panic is fixation on the epidemic, or 'epi,' curve. The epi curve shows the cumulative count of virus cases over time. Because of network effects associated with transmission of infections, most epi curves take on a parabolic shape in the early going. Here is one from a recent WHO COVID 19 situation report:

Rest assured that epi curves for influenzas assume similar shapes as flu seasons commence.

Because human tendency is to extrapolate past trends into the future, epi curves plotted during early phases of illness transmission are prone to provoke fear. "At this rate, millions will be infected soon," the analyst is tempted to conclude.

Unfortunately human minds, particularly ones operating under conditions of uncertainty and threat, are prone to static analysis. They assume the current situation keeps unfolding as the current picture projects. Fast thinking minds have limited proficiency for dynamic projections--i.e., accounting for path-altering future changes, many of them adaptive in nature, to the situation.

In the case of COVID 19, such dynamics might include:

People choosing to alter their social behavior to reduce probability of transmission.

People taking action to protect those most vulnerable to the disease, which btw would render an epi curve based simple on total infection counts less meaningful as infection:mortality ratios drop.

Hospitals and other care givers creating flexible capacity (e.g., special temporary treatment centers with concentrated care resources) to enable handling more acute cases than many pundits forecast possible.

Other sources of innovation that improve treatment processes in significant ways.

Warming weather that reduces viral seasonality effects.

Mutation of the virus into less potent forms.

Greater recognition of dynamic responses inevitable to pandemic situations would likely attenuate the hysteria flowing from fixation on the parabolic shape of the early COVID 19 epi curve.