Unsafe Harbour

"Hong Kong. A borrowed place that lives on borrowed time. The British run it now. But in 17 years, the lease runs out, and the People's Republic is the landlord. But this is a city of survivors. And whatever happens, Hong Kong will be THE place."
--Josh Randall (Forced Vengeance)

Hong Kong's local government has declared what amounts to martial law in response to unrelenting public protests. The protests have been going on since June--primarily in response to a law that would permit fugitives to be extradited from territorial Hong Kong to mainland China for trial (or, given China's opaque legal and judicial system, outright punishment).

Kyle Bass observes that banks runs have commenced and ATMs are running out of cash. Not surprising, given that the martial law declaration grants Hong Kong government the authority to confiscate bank accounts.

Bank runs all over Hong Kong now. ATM machines running out of cash but there is something more important...failed leader carrie lam(b) can now officially confiscate bank accounts and assets without recourse. The HK legal system is essentially gone. #Bankruns #HKexit https://t.co/jz9sPrA30U

— Kyle Bass (@Jkylebass) October 5, 2019

This is not good. Banks runs and closed vault doors have a way of escalating tension.

So far, the Mainland has largely remained in the background during the entire uprising. Should the central Chinese government (and military) get involved and act to put this protest down, something that hardliners in Beijing are surely chomping at the bit to do, then the situation gets ugly right quick.

Then imagine the prospects of the US wanting to step in...