Accumulative Decay

The city desert makes you feel so cold
It's got so many people but it's got no soul 
And it's taken you so long
To find out you were wrong
When you thought it held everything
--Gerry Rafferty

Many US cities that were major population centers in the early 20th century are less so today. Some, such as Detroit, Cleveland, and St Louis, sport less than 50% of their previous pops. People have left these cities in droves, primarily for the suburbs where schools were better and property was more secure.

During the 1960s, civil rights advocates claimed that urban decline was due to racism--'white flight' to the suburbs. However, as Prof Williams notes, blacks were fleeing many of these cities at higher rates than whites.

Central to this phenomenon is a process Williams terms 'accumulative decay.' When schools, neighborhoods, and city services become run down, the first people to leave are those who care the most about their quality of life and have the resources to move. Because this inaugural group tends to be the most productive, they tend to put more to city coffers than they take out.

Once this group leaves, it is replaced with people who care less about things like schools and city amenities. Moreover, since the city has lost tax resources from the productive group that has left the area, officials must either raise taxes or allow city services to deteriorate further. This the next round of people who can do better to leave.

And the downward spiral of accumulative decay gains momentum...

To reverse the cycle, Williams suggests that city officials must recognize that their first order of business is to retain what economists call 'net positive fiscal residue.' This means creating conditions that makes the most productive people want to stay in city environments. This might mean discriminating when it comes to the provision of city services. For example, provide better lighting, libraries, schools, and other amenities in more affluent neighborhoods.

Although some might argue that city service discrimination is unfair, Williams counters that it is even more unfair for cities, once magnets of opportunity for low income individuals, to devolve into economic wastelands.