You better turn around boy, don't look back
--Madonna
Perhaps a key tell that the commodity-driven inflation trade was on borrowed time was Treasury yields. After threatening to break higher a couple months back, ten year yields flipped over and have been heading lower.
Yields have now fallen to the 3.1ish level--an area that has frequently found support since 2009. If yields can't get traction around here, then there is not much support till down around 2.5%.
Since lower bond yields often correspond to increased risk aversion among market participants, one has to be conscious about what bond yield trends might be forecasting about the direction of stock and other risky assets prices.
position in SPX
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To the extent that the maintenance of our lives depends on the satisfaction of our needs, guaranteeing the satisfaction of earlier needs must necessarily precede attention to later ones. And even where not our lives but merely our continuing well-being (above all our health) is dependent on command of a quantity of goods, the attainment of well-being in a nearer period is, as a rule, a prerequisite of well being in a later period.… All experience teaches that a present enjoyment of one in the near future usually appears more important to men than one of equal intensity at a more remote time in the future.
~Carl Menger
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