Monday, September 27, 2010

In Fed We Trust

There's a room where the light won't find you
Holding hands while
The walls come tumbling down
If they do, I'll be right behind you
--Tears for Fears

Toddo reflects on the growing chorus of 'Don't fight the Fed' bulls, punctuated by hedgie David Tepper's bold proclamation last week.

To be sure, the FOMC's statement last week can be construed as a bold commitment by the Fed to fight off deflation with howitzers if need be.

However, as Todd observes, blindly riding the Fed's coat tails has been a dangerous strategy historically.

Even if the Fed were able to manufacture Big Inflation, I'm not sure that would be bullish for stocks. More certain to me is that if inflation does indeed get going, it will be very hard for the Fed to restrain it.

Which once again accentuates the need for gold and silver as insurance against monetary and perhaps social disorder.

positions in gold, silver

1 comment:

dgeorge12358 said...

Tepper presents two scenarios:
1) Economy weakens = Fed QE2 = Higher Equities
2) Economy strengthens = Higher Equities

Rosenberg presents third scenario:
3) Economy weakens = Fed QE2, but QE2 does not work

Why does he believe that QE2 won't work?
Because QE1 did not work