David's Shield

Reached out a hand to touch your face
You're slow disappearing from my view
Disappearing from my view
--A Flock of Seagulls

Russell opines that there's increasing chance that Israel attacks Iran. The Stratfor folks have been handicapping this also.

The basic thought process goes like this.

-->The US wants to appear more balanced in the region, so it has moved further away from Israel and has been largely non-interventionary in Iran's activities. (I'm not suggesting that this is a bad thing, btw)

-->Iran knows this and is exploiting a more hands off US to ramp its nuclear efforts.

-->Israel, who time and again has been verbally threatened by Iran, feels increasingly insecure and thinks it needs to take matters into their own hands.

You should be able to fill in the rest.

How would such an event impact the nascent economic recovery and financial markets? Crude's been strong (perhaps it sniffs something), and one would think a pop towards $100 would be 'easy.'

Stock markets have been stronger than a mule's breath and sentiment levels are at extremes. Hard to imagine that an Israeli strike is well priced in.

position in SPX