Ackoff's Fables

"Without changing our pattern of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current patterns of thought."
--Albert Einstein

The title of this piece by John Mauldin does not accurately reflect his primary subject. After weighing in on the Dubai situation, John shares thoughts on why he's optimistic about the future.

While I may not see eye to eye with him on some of his assertions, John offers a nice reminder about the dangers of extrapolating trends into the future. Using dark forecasts made by some during the stagflationary 70s as an example, John argues that nature (and particularly humans) adapt to difficulty (the difficulty serves as a stimulus for change). This adaptation will likely change the trend.

This reminds me of a talk I once heard by systems theorist Russ Ackoff (who sadly passed away a few weeks ago). Dr Ackoff cited numerous examples where forecasters missed the mark when predicting the future based on past and current data. The reason is that actors in complex systems change and adapt when challenged, rendering straight line forecasts of little use--particularly when forecasting future behavior inside of social systems.

John offers some plausible examples such as electricity as a viable substitute for gasoline powered cars.

When extrapolating distressing trends into the future, one needs to think about how people and the systems they live within might adapt.