Against the Wind

And I guess I lost my way
There were oh so many roads
I was living to run and running to live
Never worried about paying or even how much I owed
--Bob Seger

The US dollar keeps ripping higher despite all fundamental and technical arguments that it shouldn't.


What's different this time? The massive amount of debt that's being unwound. In order to close projects funded on credit, individuals must buy dollars. Essentially, borrowing can be viewed as creating a synthetic short position in the dollar that must be 'covered' by buying back bucks when the project is closed.

I continue to watch the dollar as a key indicator of risk aversion. Right now, it's telling me there's still a low appetite for risk out there.

position in USD