Bio Rhythm

Everybody gather 'round now
Let your body feel the heat.
Don't you worry if you can't dance
Let the music move your feet.
--Miami Sound Machine

One nice thing about a blog is that you can record real time experiences and feelings so that, in the future, you can go back to old posts and remember what certain environments felt like. Otherwise, once removed from the context, it's easy to lose that feel.

Getting back in touch with past experiences comes in handy during market extremes. If you're able to recall what it felt like during past market tops and bottoms, then it might help you make better decisions during periods that are often wrought with emotion of greed and fear.

We may be experiencing one of those extremes currently. While I have big picture concerns that lead me to believe that stock indices will be signficantly lower over the next few years, in the near term, fear seems to be growing mighty palpable. As Toddo offered earlier this am, it feels like a 'bid wanted' situation in the financials.

Not to say things couldn't get more extreme. Indeed, chances of an outright crash have increased substatially (although, by definition, dislocations are always a low probability event).

But I'm smelling a rally. If we get one, then I'll be looking to lighten up my risk profile--even on longer term holdings.

position in select financials