Unfair and Unbalanced

And you may ask yourself,
"Well, how did I get here?"
--Talking Heads

Pew study finds that the media generally does not agree with the 'fair and balanced' approach to journalism. While more than three quarters of adults believe all sides of an issue deserve equal coverage, only 55% of journalists do.

Political ideology moderates belief in 'bothsidesism.' Approximately 70% of journalists indicated that they worked for outlets that lean left. 

Unfortunately, the survey did not ask respondents how they themselves leaned politically--or at least it was not reported. However, adults indicating affinity for the left were less likely to endorse 'bothsidesism.'

In a nod toward their increasingly progressive higher ed training grounds, younger journalists appear less likely to strive toward balanced coverage than older journalists.

It would be interesting to see some longitudinal data here. Has this sort of slant been on the increase? Or is it the same as it ever was?

Handshake Contagion

When it almost seemed too much
I see your face and sense of grace
And feel the magic of your touch
--Thompson Twins

When it is time to 'offer each other a sign of peace' at mass, the new normal has become waves, good old fashioned peace signs, or other non-contact gestures. Certainly no handshakes.

Every now and then, however, people can't resist doing what is natural.

Today, the two people in front of me both offered their hands, which I gladly shook. A person behind me saw our handshakes and got in on the action as well. Genuine smiles all around too.

It felt good to defy the nonsensical and to do instead what humans were made to do. 

True contagion.

Physics of Freedom

Always searching for the real thing
Living like it's far away
Just leave all the madness in yesterday
You're holding the key
When you believe it
--Michael McDonald

Interesting article discussing the physical, rather than philosophical, aspects of freedom. It has a system dynamics flavor to it.

The author proposes that for systems to persist over time, they must freely evolve to permit currents of resources to flow through the system.

When these flows are forcibly restrained, then adaptation is more difficult.

An optimistic implication of this view is that authoritarian states that seek to restrain freedom by censorship, coercion, intimidation, and other means are doomed to failure. People will eventually throw off those constraints in order to adapt.

Perhaps a better label for this concept is 'an evolutionary theory of freedom.'

On the QT

It happened one summer
It happened one time
It happened forever
For a short time
--Motels

Bank of America (BAC) analyst and former Fed staffer who has a good track record of predicting Fed policy shifts forecasts that the central bank's current quantitative tightening (QT) will be ended much sooner than expected. He thinks QT will cease in early 2023 with about $1 trillion in asset rolled off the Fed's balance sheet.

While consistent with what these pages have been suggesting, I'll pick the under on both. Sooner than early 2023 and less than $ trillion unwound.

position in BAC

9%+

Hundred dollar car note
Two hundred rent
I get a check on Friday
But it's already spent
--Huey Lewis & the News

Another 40 yr high CPI print. Measured consumer goods and services inflation came in at a higher than expected 9.1%.

Interestingly, commodities and their associated stocks are green on the news. Also, interest rate futures are now pricing in 'policy reversal' rate cuts by early 2023.

How long before those rate cut bets start tricking into late 2022?

Institutional Confidence

Oh, but I gotta think twice
Before I give my heart away
And I know all the game that you play
--George Michael

New Gallup poll indicates confidence in many US institutions continues to decline.

Outside of small business and the military, the percentage of people expressing considerable confidence is below 50% and, in many cases, in the teens moving toward single digits.

Some institutions, including the presidency, are down more than 10 percentage points in a year.

While these results might concern members of those institutions, they are unlikely to surprise the average person on the street.

Viral Spreads

There's a room where the light won't find you
Holding hands while the walls come tumbling down
When they do
I'll be right behind you
--Tears for Fears

Ponder the differences indicated here.

Hard to imagine that there are more significant predictors of these spreads than underlying ideologies that determine political party affiliation.

Then comes the real research question: Why should this be--particularly in the context of public health? 

Rationing and Rationalizing

First, I thought we were fighting for God. Then, I realized we were fighting for wealth and land. I was ashamed.
--Tiberias (Kingdom of Heaven)

Germany has begun rationing energy-related resources to compensate for their self-imposed sanctions with Russia. Am sure German citizens are being told to suck it up. 

Unfortunately we know that if goods do not cross borders, armies will.

How long will it be before people of G-7 countries, absent power and heat, look longingly at Russian resources and rationalize war to seize oil and gas for the 'greater good?'

Stocks Still

A gambler's share
The only risk that you would take
The only loss you could forsake
The only bluff you couldn't fake
--Bob Seger

Time series of AAII asset allocation indicates that, despite the nasty market pullback, individual investors have maintained their historical allocation to equities.

Usually, big market declines cause investors to dump stocks in favor of cash.

So far, however, stock allocations remain at about 70% of financial assets. There has been a slight uptick in cash to about 18% at the expense of bonds at about 12%.

Another point supporting the narrative that while individual investors feel bad about the market decline, they haven't acted on it in a substantial way--at least not via their investment accounts. 

Ceiling Prices

We run though the day
And stare at the night
Is your head full of noises?
For me, well, it's just like
The Fourth of July
--Roger Daltrey

Among the dumbest of economic policies pursued by politicians is the price ceiling. The thinking is typical authoritarian. Think prices are too high? Then simply declare them lower. Set a maximum price for transactions on the market. Punish those who engage in transactions at a higher-than-mandated price.

What happens when producers are forcibly restrained from selling output at higher prices? Supply leaves the market. Shortages develop. 

Not only does present supply leave the market, but future sources do as well. Entrepreneurs are less motivated to develop marginal or substitute sources of supply when the profit signal of higher prices is suppressed.

Over time, prices are likely to be much higher--particularly if it takes a long time to replace capacity once it is taken off the market by the caps.

Cogitate on that as G-7 bureaucrats mull price caps on Russian oil.