Filled With Awe

Who is this that comes forth like the dawn
as beautiful as the moon
as resplendent as the sun?
--Sg 6:10

We celebrate the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary today.

"Blue Madonna" (Carlos Dolci, 1616-1687)

Am once again filled with awe.

Contagiousness

"You know where this comes from--shaking hands? It was a way of showing a stranger that you weren't carrying a weapon in the old days. You offered your empty right hand to show you meant no harm."
--Dr Ellis Cheever (Contagion)

The data suggest that most people face more risk of being killed by driving to work or by being struck by lightning than from CV19. According to some people, that doesn't matter because, unlike those other sources of risk, the virus is contagious. Therefore, extreme measures are required to mitigate the risk.

This train of logic is...derailed.

Let's do a couple of things upfront. First, let's define 'contagious' as an illness than can be spread from one person to another from either direct or indirect contact. Second, let's set aside the constitutional issues that such a definition presents to someone who wants to restrict individual freedoms due to the prospects of contagious spread. Among other things, those issues include demonstrating beyond doubt that a person has a communicable illness, that this person will imminently infect others, that an infection, if it occurs, is likely to result in a mortal condition for the recipient.

That burden of proof, btw, rests with the accuser, and must be proven for each individual whose liberties are being threatened. Stated differently, a 'class action' decision that restricts the liberties of a large group of people based on sweeping generalizations about the contagious nature of a virus are invalid.

That's a tall order right there. But let's set the constitutional problems aside for now and ponder the logic--that the contagious nature of CV19 somehow nullifies traditional risk assessment.

An obvious question out of the gate is this: What makes CV19 unique in this regard? We've had contagious diseases before. The seasonal flu is contagious. If the response is that CV19 is more contagious than the seasonal flu, then the question becomes this: At what level of contagion does the need for extraordinary measures kick in? What is the rationale that demonstrates why CV19 defies traditional risk assessment and requires extraordinary measures that weren't necessary previously?

That's a tall order as well.

Finally, consider the construct of contagion itself. In a general sense, contagion can be seen as the spread of something bad or harmful. People are exposed to contagion in this sense every day. When driving, for example, a person could be operating a poorly maintained car (e.g., worn out brakes, under-inflated tires) or distracted while at the wheel (e.g., texting on phone, not concentrating on road) which increases the likelihood that they could 'spread serious injury' to others.

If people routinely assess the risk of contagion on the roads, then why are they incapable of doing so in the case of contagious illness?

More Seasonality Evidence

Strange voices are saying
What did they say?
Things I can't understand
It's too close for comfort 
This heat has got right out of hand
--Bananarama

Another interesting graphic suggesting seasonality and geographic influence on CV19 patterns. The graph shows deaths as % of population sorted by latitude. Consistent w geographic patterns suggested in previous pages (here, here, here).

Weekly US #COVID19 deaths for each state as % of state pop ordered by latitude of state capital. Looks like a seasonal affect, with the virus moving south. The outlier is Louisiana, any ideas? pic.twitter.com/X9uPJB6rif

— TheShakespeareanApe (@alexkx3) August 9, 2020

Louisiana sticks out as an outlier as it exhibits a pattern similar to northern states. A reasonable explanation is that many northerners visited New Orleans in March for Mardi Gras which seeded an outbreak with a shape more consistent with temperate climates.

Note that all southern state mortality curves are now trending down.

Subsidizing Lockdowns

Jacob Moore: You know what moral hazard is, Ma? You know what that means?
Sylvia Moore: No.
Jacob Moore: It means that once you get bailed out, what's to stop you from taking another shot.
--Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Why would so many blue states and localities push for long term lockdowns when these measures would surely crush their main stream of resources: tax revenues? The answer seems obvious. They calculate that their behavior will be subsidized.

And now House Democrats are trying to make it happen.

Textbook moral hazard.

Masks, Filters, and Folly

Evey Hammond: Who are you?
V: Who? Who is but the form following the function of what, and what I am is a man in a mask.
Evey Hammond: Well, I can see that.
V: Of course you can. I'm not questioning your powers of observation. I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
Evey Hammond: Oh...right.
--V for Vendetta

In the medical sense, a 'mask' is a filter. It is put over the mouth and nose to catch undesirable matter in inbound and/or outbound air flow. Two primary factors dictate the effectiveness of a filter.

One is mesh size. Think of a window screen. The larger the space between the cross hatched screen material, then the greater the likelihood of bugs getting through. Smaller mesh keeps out more bugs, but at the cost of air flow and problems with cleanliness.

The other is thickness. Rather than comprised of just a single screen, many filters are essentially multiple layers of screen that are slightly offset in order to trap more airborne matter. Think of a furnace filter. A two inch thick filter traps more dirt than a one inch filter. Once again, the tradeoff is that airflow and cleanliness are compromised.

A virus is a microscopic particle. Only filters with ultra small mesh size and/or ultrawide thickness would have a chance at snagging something so small. If people were to wear such masks, then breathing would almost surely be deterred, and the masks would be difficult to keep clean for any length of time. Consequently, health problems for mask wearers are almost certain to surface.

A mask mandate that were truly grounded in 'science' would have demonstrated the filtration effectiveness of masks with a specific mesh size and thickness without health concerns. And it would require masks that met those specifications.

Anything can be used as a face covering.

Surgical masks,
Painter masks,
Snoods,
Bandanas,
Cut up T-shirts,
Even an old tea towel with holes is accepted.

That’s because mask wearing has nothing to do with your health, but only your compliance.

— smcbride360 (@smcbride360) August 10, 2020

That is not what we have. Anything wrapped around your face will do. Even fabric with holes.

This really tells you all you need to know about the purpose behind forced masking.

#WeWantToPlay

Daniel 'Rudy' Ruettiger: I'm sorry I never got you to see your first game here.
Fortune: Hell, I've seen too many games in this stadium.
Daniel 'Rudy' Ruettiger: I thought you said you never saw a game...
Fortune: I've never seen a game from the stands.
Daniel 'Rudy' Ruettiger: You were a player?
Fortune: I rode the bench for two years. Thought I wasn't being played because of my color. I got filled up with a lot of attitude. So I quit. Still not a week goes by that I don't regret it. And I guarantee a week won't go by in your life that you won't regret walking out and letting them get the best of you. Do you hear me clear enough?
--Rudy

Because they have been unable to keep pro sports on the sidelines, authoritarians are seemingly pulling out all stops to cancel the college football season. Reports are circulating that the Big Ten and Pac 12 will announce cancellations tomorrow.

Statists have an edge here, since higher ed is tightly coupled to the same highly charged institutional field where socialist disruptors have been exerting influence.

However, people are pushing back. College players, families, coaches, athletic depts, politicians are using the hashtag #WeWantToPlay to symbolize their resolve to play this fall.

Arkansas’s head coach has endorsed #WeWantToPlay. Get ready, about to be a stampede of coaches to follow. https://t.co/4WHGz27He2

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) August 10, 2020

This morning, Florida governor Ron DeSantis said that not only should the ACC and SEC play this fall, but schools should actively recruit players away from schools in conferences that decide to shut their programs down. Would think they would collect a fair number of recruits.

AM @outkick is all about the battle to save college football — and all college athletics. @GovRonDeSantis is our guest and says SEC & ACC should play & recruit away Big Ten players if that conference won’t play. It’s fantastic. Go listen & subscribe: https://t.co/jEdVeVQzau

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) August 10, 2020

This is quickly escalating to something much greater than fall football. Should people triumph and claw back the season from the corona crowd, institutional pressures for CV19-related compliance could weaken considerably.

Libido Dominandi

And baby I'll rule, I'll rule, I'll rule, I'll rule
Let me me live that fantasy
--Lorde

During a class discussion of the consequences of government intervention in production and trade, a student once exclaimed in frustration, "Why can't they just leave us alone?"

The answer: libido dominandi--the lust to dominate. The desire to control others. Particularly via the strong arm of government.

There are few more powerful forces of evil.

Theories of Viral Response

"I hate losses, sport. Nothing ruins my day more than losses."
--Gordon Gekko (Wall Street)

As strange as the past few months have been, there are actually theories that help explain the unusual behavior of people and policymakers. These pages have been documented a few. Let's review some of them here.

Social identity theory. Behavior of out-group members is criticized while behavior of in-group members is largely given a pass. Because leftists tend to be, by definition, more collectivist, we should expect in-group/out-group norms to be more prevalent among those on the political left. Helps explain division of CV19 discourse and policies along political lines.

Institution theory. Institutions are rules and norms that exert pressure for sameness and compliance. Pressure for 'isomorphism' can be classified in one of three types: coercive (laws, regulations), normative (customs, common practices), mimetic (imitating behavior of others). Mimetic isomorphism is particularly prevalent in uncertain times--which helps explain quick spreading policies such as lockdown and mask wearing.

Agency theory. Agents are supposed to work on behalf of their principals, but often pursue their own interests at the principals' expense--particularly when principals are unable to monitor/assess agent work. Helps explain behavior of public health officials as well as efforts to manipulate data to hide error.

Resource dependence theory. Entities are rarely self-sufficient. Instead, they must trade with others to obtain resources necessary for survival and growth. Larger resource providers exert more power over smaller dependents. Helps explain why sectors highly dependent on government funding, such as health care, are likely to fall in line with CV19 policy mandates.

Threat rigidity theory. Facing conditions of threat, individuals, groups, and organizations tend to do two things. One, they restrict information processing channels to reduce information overload and to economize attention on lessons learned from dealing with past threats. Two, they tighten control processes by centralizing decision making authority. These actions combine to rigidify response to threat. Creative solutions are shunned in favor of customary responses that worked well to quell previous threats. When the nature of the threat differs radically from previous episodes, then failing to consider novel responses results in a reinforcing loop of maladaptive behavior. This theory, coupled with the next one, says much about collective response to a new virus.

Fast and slow thinking. People posses two decision making processes. System 1 is emotional and reactive. Instead of deliberately processing information which takes time and effort, this 'fast thinking' processes makes snap decisions. The vast majority of decisions are made using fast thinking processes. System 2 is rational and data driven. It collects evidence and deliberates before deciding. This slow thinking process--the truly rational one--is rarely used. It is easy to surmise that most people have been engaging their fast thinking system 1 brains when making sense of the CV19 pandemic and associated policy responses.

Transaction cost economics. Econ 101 assumes that exchange is cost-free. In reality, 'transaction costs' accompany trade. Search, contracting, arbitration, translation, regulation. The higher the transaction costs, the less likely people trade on the market (outsource) with other specialists. Instead, they will pull more activities in-house (insource) and diversify. Higher transaction costs associated with CV19, particularly those imposed by regulation (mask wearing, hand washing, sanitizing, spacing), are keeping people from trading with each other.

Prospect theory and escalation of commitment. You plan out what seems like a great strategy. You begin implementing it. But it doesn't work. What to do? Rather than cut your losses and change course, you will be prone to keep going and perhaps even escalate your commitment. A key reason: loss aversion. People hate losses more than they like gains. This theory says much about why officials are unlikely to reverse failing CV19 policies.

My sense is that these threads could be woven into an interesting theory of viral response.

Opting Out

We can dance if we want to
We can leave your friends behind
Because your friends don't dance
And if they don't dance
Well, they're no friends of mine
--Men Without Hats

Currently, when people choose to 'opt out' of an activity, it is commonly assumed that they are doing so for safety reasons. They are afraid of becoming infected with the virus or of transmitting the virus to others.

This is undoubtedly true in many cases.

However, it is also true that some are opting out because of the oppressive regulatory environment that they would face by opting in. Freedoms are being restricted. Transaction costs are rising.

In Galtean fashion, if some players are not permitted to operators freely, then they won't take the field. Instead, they'll look for a different game.

Latitude Attitude

Can't you hear
Can't you hear the thunder?
You better run
You better take cover
--Men at Work

Another seasonality-based visual analysis of three 'hotspot' countries south of the equator. What do they have in common?

Three countries with rising cases on three different continents that were all praised for lockdowns in April. What do they have in common? @kylamb8 @FatEmperor

Latitudinal seasonality is the signal. Politics, lockdowns, moral blame games are all noise. pic.twitter.com/RBTODwsPvA

— Purgatory (@lovethevee) August 6, 2020

Latitude.