Evolutionary Pressure

Look in the mirror
And see that you've been taken
Oh, you won't surrender
And now your heart is breakin'
--John Waite

The Darwinian perspective of evolution famously highlights processes of variation, selection, and retention that bring about adaptive change. These processes are often assumed to unfold gradually. When something is said to 'evolve,' the pace of change is commonly seen as slow and measured.

However, research in biology, scientific progress, organizations, and other domains suggests that evolutionary change is commonly not gradual, but abrupt (Gersick, 1991). Following long periods of relative stability, radical change occurs in brief periods of upheaval. Surviving these disruptive periods requires timely adaptive response.

This 'punctuated equilibrium' view of adaptation suggests that pressure for change exerted by environments varies temporally. Most of the time, pressure is relatively mild and necessitates only minor, incremental responses. During periods of upheaval, however, pressure is acute and demands major reorientation in order to adapt. 

Stated differently, 'evolutionary pressure' increases dramatically in disruptive environments. As evolutionary pressure grows, so does impetus for radical response.

Among the interesting points made in this article is the notion that public health policies, particularly those related to mandatory vaccination, create disruptive environments for CV19 that increase evolutionary pressure for adaptation. Vaccinating large groups of people, particularly groups that generally do not benefit from the vaccine (e.g., young people) puts strong evolutionary pressure on the virus to become vaccine resistant. To become more vaccine resistant, viruses must develop new characteristics that enable them to infect hosts--a process that may make adaptive forms of the virus more dangerous.

If vaccines were instead administered only to the elderly and other at-risk groups, then evolutionary pressure on the virus would have been reduced and, plausibly, the vaccines would have been effective for longer periods of time. Moreover, with less motivation to mutate radically, the virus would be prone instead to follow a path of incremental change as it adapts to a less threatening environment. As hosts contract less acute forms of the virus, natural immunity increases and infection severity decreases, leading to dissipation of the public health threat.

Reference

Gersick, C.J.G. (1991). Revolutionary change theories: A multilevel exploration of the punctuated equilibrium paradigm. Academy of Management Review, 16: 1-36.