Friday, March 19, 2021

Public Mindlessness

Now did you read the news today?
They say the danger's gone away
But I can see the fire's still alight
Burning into the night

--Genesis

One month later and Ten Year rates still climbing. Why no allergic reaction in markets yet?

I suspect that market participants collectively believe that the Fed will not allow rates to continue to rise. They think the Fed heads will initiate yield curve control or some other monetization measure to buy down rates.

Has American belief in central planning ever been this high? In all policymaking areas. Monetary. Fiscal. Health. Perhaps only during the Great Depression has confidence in bureaucratic prowess matched current levels.

Theory and history suggest that the public mind is in for a big let down.

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