Thursday, February 27, 2020

Correction Analog

"1929. As the dizzy decade nears its end, the country is stock market crazy. The great and the humble...the rich man and the working man...the housewife and the shop girl. All take their daily flier in the market, and no one seems to lose. Then like a bombshell comes that never-to-be-forgotten Black Tuesday, October 29. Confusion spreads throughout the canyons of New York's financial district. And men stare wild-eyed at the spectacle of complete ruin. More than sixteen and a half million shares change hands in a single day of frenzied selling. The paper fortunes built up over the last few years crumble into nothing before this disaster which is to touch every man, woman, and child in America."
--Narrator (The Roaring Twenties)

In summer of 1929, the Dow reached the apex of the Roaring Twenties stock market move with another all time high, running up nearly 80% from Jan 1928. It then quickly fell 10%--and then a lot more during the October crash that marked the event that would usher in the Great Depression.


Since the Dec 2018 lows, the present-day Dow ran over 30% to all time highs a couple of weeks ago. Since then, it has quickly fallen about 10%--which tags this market as the quickest to register a 10% decline since the 1929 analog.

Not apples to apples to be sure, but worth keeping in mind.

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